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Updated odds to make the playoffs and win the AFC North

Umito November 21, 2024

Mike Tomlin made a bold move after a 4-2 start to the 2024 NFL season. The long time Pittsburgh Steelers the coach replaced the starting quarterback Justin Fields with Russell Wilsonwho was expected to be the team’s starter before a calf injury sidelined him at the start of the season.

Many viewed Tomlin’s decision as an unnecessary risk. After all, the Steelers won with Fields. Why change a largely winning formula during the first third of the season?

As usual, Tomlin had the last laugh. Wilson has won four straight starts since taking over from Fields and the Steelers are on the verge of winning a division title for the first time since 2020.

Pittsburgh enters its week 12″Thursday Night Football” match against Cleveland Browns with an 8-2 record. The Steelers’ head-to-head victory against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 11 gives them the edge in the AFC North race and pushes their playoff chances to near-lock status.

If Pittsburgh can beat the Browns on Thursday night, Tomlin, 52, will win his 18th straight season as an NFL head coach.

Here’s what you need to know about the Steelers’ playoff odds, their remaining schedule and their position in the AFC playoff picture for Week 12.

Steelers playoff odds

According to BetMGM Sports Bettingthe Steelers are -3000 odds to make the playoffs Week 12. This implied probability gives Pittsburgh a 96.77% chance of making the playoffs.

Steelers remaining schedule

The Steelers’ seven remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .493, per Tankathon. That makes Pittsburgh’s remaining schedule the 15th toughest of the NFL’s 32 teams.

That said, five of the Steelers’ remaining seven games will be against division opponents. While their four games combined against the Browns and Cincinnati Bengals That might not seem too difficult on paper, but they’ll surely be tested in what are typically AFC North slugfests.

Below is a complete overview of Pittsburgh’s schedule:

AFC North standings

Pittsburgh’s chances of defeating the AFC North are slimmer than their chances of making the playoffs. BetMGM currently lists the Steelers as -155 favorites to win the division, a 60.78% chance.

Below is a complete look at the AFC North standings entering Week 12:

The Steelers not only have a game and a half lead over the Ravens, but they also beat Baltimore in their only head-to-head matchup thus far. This gives the Steelers an advantage in the head-to-head tiebreaker, although Baltimore could even win the series when they face each other in Week 16.

Even if they do, the Steelers still have more opportunities to control the division record tiebreaker. They are 1-0 against AFC North teams in 2024, while the Ravens are just 2-2.

If the Steelers can beat the Ravens head-to-head a second time in Week 16, it should put them on track toward their first AFC North title since 2020.