As the COP29 climate summit in Baku enters a critical period, the spotlight is on China.

With only days left for states to reach a final agreement, there is hope that China will step in to fill the looming climate leadership void left by Donald Trump’s re-election. The US president-elect has said he plans to withdraw from the Paris Agreement upon his return to the White House.

“I think this is certainly an important moment and a great opportunity for China to close this leadership gap,” said Yao Zhe, a policy analyst at Greenpeace East Asia, highlighting the country’s progress on decarbonization. at the national level and its capacity to develop its technology.

As the world’s largest emitter and second-largest economy, negotiators are urging China to send a positive signal by setting more ambitious emissions reduction targets – and increase its accountability on climate finance.

One of the main goals of this year’s summit is to set a financing target – known as the New Collective Quantified Climate Finance Target (NCQG) – to help poorer countries cope with the climate change.

Leading economists have estimated that by the end of the decade, developing countries will need $1 trillion a year to help them reduce emissions and deal with the impacts of extreme weather.

Industrialized countries responsible for most of the historic emissions that caused global warming are expected to contribute to the fund for developing countries. But delegates from the United States, the European Union and some developing countries say China should also contribute.

Despite being a major economy, the UN still technically classifies China as a developing country.

Why is China being asked to contribute more?

Developing countries that are large emitters and have the capacity to engage in climate finance should do so, according to Bangladesh Environment Minister Rizwana Hasan. “China can contribute, others can contribute, India can contribute to some extent,” Hasan said.

But China’s representatives at COP29 said they would continue to make voluntary commitments on climate finance. The country, which has not contributed to the previously agreed target of developed countries of raising $100 billion a year, said it had provided around $24.5 billion in financing since 2016. It has also invested heavily in solar and wind energy, as well as in electric vehicles.

On whether Beijing should be required to contribute to the NCQG, Adonia Ayebare, chair of the G77 coalition of developing countries and China group, told DW: “They’re already contributing, right? They’re part of the G77 . They have the largest solar panels in the world. They produce them and we buy them.

Niklas Höhne, a climate policy expert at the nonprofit think tank NewClimate Institute, agrees that while China is not officially mentioned as contributing to climate finance, in reality it already does. “They fund a lot of projects outside their country. Right now it’s at least $3 billion a year,” he said.

Recognizing the contributions already made by countries like China could be a “strong motivation to unblock discussions,” said Céline Kauffmann, director of programs at Iddri, an independent policy research institute focused on sustainable development.

China’s climate action: a contradictory picture

Another key reason why China is pushing for leadership and setting new emissions targets is the central role the country plays in global greenhouse gas emissions, Höhne said.

“China is so big. It accounts for a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions. So if China peaks and declines, then global greenhouse gas emissions peak and decline as well,” he said. he declared.

China currently produces about twice as many emissions as the United States, which is the second largest polluter and responsible for 90% of the growth in global CO2 emissions since 2015.

The Paris Agreement calls on developed countries to take the lead in climate action due to their disproportionate historical emissions. However, China’s historic emissions now exceed those of the EU, according to analysis by UK climate science and policy platform Carbon Brief.

Yet China is also a global leader in green energy investment and development. In 2023, the country has invested $273 billion in clean energy, followed by Europe, which has spent about half that.

China’s investments in renewable energy accounted for a third of all those made worldwide, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), which says China has also commissioned as much solar photovoltaic power in 2023 than the whole world in 2022 and its wind capacity has also increased by 66%. last year. Nearly 60% of new electric car registrations are in China.

In September 2020, Chinese President Xi Jinping said his country aimed to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.

But according to a climate change performance index released yesterday, China ranks 55th out of 67 countries tracked for their progress on climate action.

The index notes that although it is a renewable energy powerhouse and on the verge of peaking emissions, the country does not have sufficient climate targets and remains heavily dependent on fuels. fossils. Coal provides most of the country’s energy and its production has reached a record level in 2023 according to the IEA.

To keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit), the world must significantly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, Niklas Höhne said.

“That’s why everyone hopes that China can come up with a target for significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and it can, because renewable energy is really growing very, very quickly in China.” , he added.

Tim Schauenberg contributed to this report from the COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Correction, November 21, 2024: A previous version of this article incorrectly attributed a quote to the former environment minister of Bangladesh. This has now been fixed.

Edited by: Jennifer Collins