Toronto, we may have a problem.

Craig Berube’s first month behind the Maple Leafs bench has been mixed. The team got off to a bit of a sleepy start (4-4-1 with a -2 goal differential) in October, but nothing has slowed them down in the longer-term playoff race. The entire Atlantic Division has spent the first month trading wins and losses – even the defending champion Florida Panthers (6-3-1) have a zero goal differential through Sunday.

Toronto’s roster, which has seen a notable acceleration of change in the post-Kyle Dubas era, still holds up well at even strength. If you’re looking for a glass-half-full assessment of the situation in Toronto, these numbers are solid early on, even with considerable changes further down the depth chart:

This is a very encouraging advantage play and the type of even-strength production that can lead a team to the playoffs. That’s the good news.

The bad news? The main reason Toronto is currently on the treadmill of mediocrity in the standings is a completely ineffective power play. And the problem isn’t just a run of bad luck in October. This is a lingering issue from a season ago and one that really limits their ceiling as a team.

It’s hard for me, and probably everyone in the Maple Leafs organization, to understand what went wrong with this unit. For years, Toronto’s power play was one of the scariest weapons in the league, thanks in large part to the shooting abilities of Auston Matthews. Surrounding Matthews with true offensive playmakers like winger Mitch Marner, and supporting that unit with a defensive puck shooter in Morgan Rielly, the defensive structures were scattered.

But that’s no longer the case, and hasn’t been for some time. Only three forwards – Matthews, John Tavares and William Nylander – have scored a goal there this season. And if you look at Toronto’s power play production since Matthews’ rookie season, you can see how much the scoring has dropped:

Power play and penalty shootout success rates, especially on smaller sample sizes, are always ripe for volatility. Goalkeeping has a huge effect on performance in both directions. And we shouldn’t ignore that Toronto might be having a bit of bad luck with the puck right now. After all, Toronto went through a similarly horrific slump during the 2020-2021 season and was able to quickly emerge from it.

But if a team that reliably scored about nine goals every 60 minutes more than a man for nearly a decade is back to half that level of production, or worse, that’s a real problem.

For years, that was what set Toronto apart: not an elite goaltender, not an unbreakable penalty kill, not even a lineup that dominates possession and dictates the pace of play at 5-on-5. If the power play has regressed significantly, Toronto just isn’t the same scary opponent anymore – even in the regular season.

Toronto’s saving grace, of course, is that they have the world’s leading scorer on their first unit. And even Alexander Ovechkin’s era in Washington, perhaps the best player comparison for Matthews these days, had some downturns during the season.

And even beyond Matthews, the personnel has remained mostly the same – Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Matthew Knies are newer pieces to Toronto’s power play structure, but overall it’s the same group of talented players we saw anchoring the Leafs power play. years.

The goal is to make this a temporary slowdown, not a new normal. For Bérubé and his assistants, resurrecting this once-famous power play is an early-season test.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference