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Ukraine cannot take back Crimea by force, says Zelensky, as support for deal grows
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Ukraine cannot take back Crimea by force, says Zelensky, as support for deal grows

President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine could not recover Crimea by force, and would instead seek a diplomatic solution, with polls showing growing support among Ukrainian public opinion for a negotiated settlement, even at the cost of territorial concessions.

The president has repeatedly stated that Ukraine would insist on recovering all territories seized by Russia since 2014, including the peninsula described as “temporarily occupied” in official statements.

But Zelensky told Fox News that military conquest of the territory was not realistic.

“We cannot spend tens of thousands of our citizens to perish for the sake of Crimea’s return,” he said in an interview Wednesday evening, adding that his government would seek to reclaim it through diplomatic means and would not recognize any country. occupied territory that is part of Russia.

President-elect Donald Trump appears likely to push Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to strike a difficult peace deal for kyiv (Photo: Alex Kent/Getty Images)
Donald Trump appears likely to push Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into a difficult peace deal (Photo: Alex Kent/Getty Images)

The apparent decline follows brutal statements from Bryan Lanzawho was a prominent member of that of Donald Trump the presidential campaign team, that “Crimea has disappeared” and that Ukraine must accept a “realistic vision of peace”.

Trump’s representatives said Lanza was not speaking on his behalf. But the president-elect has criticized U.S. aid to Ukraine and promised a quick deal to end the war – without explaining how – while military analysts say a long, bloody and resource-intensive campaign would be necessary to try to retake Crimea.

Zelensky’s comments come amid signs of greater openness among the Ukrainian public to territorial concessions. A new Gallup poll This week, 52 percent of Ukrainians favored a negotiated settlement to the war, and 38 percent said Ukraine should fight to victory, a reversal of position found by the same survey 12 months ago .

Among supporters of a negotiated solution, more than half of those surveyed said they would be open to territorial concessions to reach an agreement. Among those in favor of total victory, the proportion who would accept the loss of Crimea has tripled, from 5% to 15% since 2023.

Support for total victory was lowest in regions most affected by the war, such as Donetsk and Kharkiv.

Oleksiy Arestovych, a former adviser to Zelensky, said I the president has bowed to the inevitable, but the apparent concession will still not result in a peace agreement.

“The main event happened: Zelensky announced the return of Crimea by diplomatic rather than military means,” he said. “What has been obvious for almost two years has been expressed. This means that his administration accepts territorial losses, even temporary.”

But Arestovych added: “The dilemma is that no Ukrainian politician can accept de jure recognition of the territories occupied by Russia, which Putin so desires. This means that a comprehensive peace agreement is virtually impossible.”

“There are few options left: a ceasefire, interim peace agreements and a situation in which we and the Russian Federation consider these territories legally ours. Such situations are known in modern history, such as in northern Cyprus.”

Ihor Lutsenko, a former Ukrainian MP now serving in the army, suggested that the West was trying to “force Ukrainian leaders to surrender under the guise of compromise and avoiding further violence.”

Any concessions would lead to deep divisions within Ukrainian society, he said, even if only in Crimea. “There will be a lot of conflict and no unity on this.”

James Nixey, head of the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House, said territorial compromises were unlikely to lead to a peace deal.

“Russia does not want territories or territorial concessions, it wants control,” he said. “If Ukraine cedes territory – voluntarily or involuntarily – it will not solve the problem. »

The Kremlin believes it has won the war and would now push for “pro-Russian neutrality” that would give it broad power over Ukraine, Nixey added.

“Russia believes it has the strategic advantage and time to achieve this,” he said. “Now that Russia has started this thing and is attacking what it considers rightfully its own, it does not want piecemeal offers.”

“Minor concessions will not work for Russia. Big concessions will not work for Ukraine.”