Welcome to the online version of From the political officean evening newsletter that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, national politics reporter Sahil Kapur explains why it won’t be easy for Democrats to regain control of the Senate anytime soon. Plus, political reporters Allan Smith and Vaughn Hillyard examine how Donald Trump’s transition team is turning to the much-maligned Project 2025 to fill administration positions.

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GOP Senate campaign leader: Our majority could last the entire decade

By Sahil Kapur

Outgoing National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines takes the challenge, predicting that the Republican Party majority of 53 seats newly obtained in the 2024 election could give the party control of the House for several cycles to come.

“We’re grateful to have these additional seats beyond the majority of 51. I think it bodes well for us to maintain the majority for the rest of the decade,” Daines, of Montana, told NBC News.

Republicans won four Democratic-held seats in the red states of West Virginia, Montana and Ohio, as well as the purple state of Pennsylvania. The GOP served in red-leaning Florida and Texas, where Democrats were hoping for a miracle. For their part, Democrats held on in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, despite the fact that Donald Trump won all of these states.

But what about Daines’ prediction? It’s bold, but plausible.

Democrats just had a map nightmare, so the landscape will only get better from here. But not much better in 2026 or 2028barring a dramatic political realignment.

The 2026 map follows the 2020 cycle, in which Democrats won 50 seats and flipped the Senate thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote. The party’s best hope for a recovery in two years is in Maine, where longtime centrist Republican Sen. Susan Collins has proven to be a tough target. Another example is North Carolina, a battleground state where Democrats haven’t won a Senate seat since 2008 and failed to unseat Republican Sen. Thom Tillis four years ago.

From there it gets harder: Alaska, Iowa, Kentucky, Texas. All states Trump won comfortably in his three elections.

In 2026, Democrats will also have to defend their seats in the swing states of Michigan (Senator Gary Peters) and Georgia (Senator Jon Ossoff). Both will be the main Republican targets.

Looking further out to 2028, the best pickup opportunities for Democrats are in North Carolina (Senator Ted Budd) and Wisconsin (Senator Ron Johnson). But they will have to defend their seats in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

Bottom line: Unless Democrats find a way to increase their appeal to white voters without college degrees, their chances of proving Daine wrong appear daunting. These voters wield disproportionate influence in the Senate, which has two seats per state, given the large number of rural and sparsely populated states.

The silver lining for Democrats is that their new coalition — which relies heavily on high-propensity, college-educated voters and enduring support from black voters — is well-suited to turnout rates in off-year elections or in midterms, as in 2026. Republicans have struggled to replicate Trump’s coalition for their own elections, especially without him running alongside them.

Trump’s transition team turns to plan 2025 after disavowing it during the campaign

By Allan Smith and Vaughn Hillyard

Donald Trump and his allies disavowed the conservative 2025 plan during the elections, viewing the conservative transition plan and policy plan as a liability after Democrats used them to attack his campaign. Some close to Trump even suggested that those connected to the effort would be excluded from a possible administration.

“They went nuclear,” Howard Lutnick, Trump’s transition co-chair and his nominee for Commerce secretary, told CNBC in September.

But with the campaign over, Trump’s transition team is turning to Project 2025 to help staff the next administration. Already, transition officials are considering suggestions for potential hires from the vast personnel database created by Project 2025, a person familiar with the matter told NBC News.

While Project 2025’s massive book of conservative policy recommendations captured most of Democrats’ attention, a central part of the effort was building a database that officials billed as a conservative LinkedIn to help to provide a new Republican administration.

People helping to assemble the personnel teams for the Trump transition operation sought and used information from the Project 2025 database because of the enormity of the task of filling the more than 4,000 Trump-appointed positions. politicians who will become vacant in 2025, this person said. .

The receptiveness to using the Project 2025 database for potential hires comes as the transition has already shown that it is open to tapping contributors to the effort for administrative jobs, including Tom Homan as its government czar. borders, Brendan Carr as chairman of the Federal Communications Commission and John Ratcliffe. as director of the CIA. Both Homan and Ratcliffe were listed as contributors to Project 2025, while Carr wrote a chapter on the FCC.

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