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    • The latest 2024 election polls favor Trump. Will this matter?
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    The latest 2024 election polls favor Trump. Will this matter?

    Umito Posted on

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    WASHINGTON – In his third run for president, Republican candidate Donald Trump has never been as well placed in the polls as he is today – but he will have to wait at least a week to find out if that means something.

    As of Monday, Trump leads Kamala Harris, Democratic presidential candidate with a margin as close as possible – 0.1% – in the Real Clear Politics average recent polls. In the same poll, he trailed Joe Biden by 7.5% four years ago and by 4.6% in 2016, the year he won the presidency against Hillary Clinton.

    According to Trump and his allies, the closer the elections are in the popular vote, the better his chances of winning enough states to capture the Electoral College and the presidency – and he outperformed the polls in his previous two races.

    Democrats say there is reason to doubt that will happen this time. They said pollsters were compensating for what they called “hidden Trump voters” from the previous two elections and, instead, were oversampling Republicans and inflating Trump’s numbers.

    Republican candidates have underperformed in polls in the 2022 congressional elections, Democrats said. And Trump steadily underperformed in the polls during a series of Republican primaries earlier this year.

    “It’s much more likely that — if there’s a failure in the polls — it will go in our favor,” said Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist and polling analyst.

    The apparent closeness of the race — and the uncertainty of the election — is why both campaigns are urging their citizens to turn out themselves and others to the polls.

    “Pretend you’re one point behind,” Trump told supporters during his speech Sunday. Madison Square Garden rally.

    Harris and her allies delivered similar messages to their constituents, and the vice president expressed confidence in the outcome.

    “My internal polling is my instinct,” Harris told reporters while campaigning in Philadelphia. “I let the country people take care of everything else, and I react to what I see.”

    She added: “It’s very exciting and the momentum is with us.”

    The battleground states that will decide the election – including the trio of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – are also quite closeand Trump supporters believe their “hidden vote” remains an important factor.

    In PennsylvaniaTHE Really clear political average gives Trump a 0.5% lead – eight years ago at this time he trailed Clinton by 5 percentage points in the Keystone State, but still narrowly won on the day of the ballot.

    In MichiganTrump has a 0.1 point lead the average of the RCP. Four years ago, Biden led the poll by 8.6 percentage points, while eight years ago, Clinton held a seven-point lead. Trump narrowly lost Michigan in 2020 and narrowly won it in 2016.

    And what about Wisconsin? Trump has a 0.3 percentage point lead in the average of the RCP. Biden led the state by 6.4 points in the poll on average four years ago, and barely won the state. Clinton led by 6 percentage points in 2016, and Trump barely won the state.

    Trump promotes – and exaggerates – his poll numbers, while Democrats project a different story once voting is over.

    “Here’s a prediction,” said pro-Harris political commentator Matthew Dowd, speaking on the social media site. “Watch every one of the poll aggregators/election predictors change their models this week to favor Harris… They’ve been wrong for a month.”

    Joey Garrison contributed

    Umito
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