What you should watch for as Oklahoma hosts No. 7 Alabama in this new SEC football game on Saturday, with our updated prediction for the game.

Alabama enters this weekend as the projected No. 9 seed in the College Football Playoff bracket, but with two losses in SEC play, there’s no margin for error moving forward with other teams looking to gain an advantage in a crowded field around the top twelve.

Oklahoma hasn’t been a factor in weeks, just 1-5 in SEC play and losing four straight conference games and this game and the finale against LSU becoming bowl eligible.

Alabama and Oklahoma are two of the winningest college football programs of all time, combining for 25 national championships, but have only met six times before this weekend.

Oklahoma holds the all-time series lead 3-2-1, but Alabama won most recently, in a 45-34 victory in the Orange Bowl semifinal game in 2018.

What can we expect when the Crimson Tide and Sooners face off in this SEC showdown?

Here’s what you need to watch for as Alabama and Oklahoma meet in this Week 13 college football matchup, along with our updated prediction for the matchup.

1. On the line. Oklahoma’s offensive line has been a real source of anxiety for this team from the start, resulting in 7 different rotations throughout the season, but none of them really worked.

OU comes into this week having allowed 41 sacks, the most in the country and a school record dating back nearly a decade, and has allowed 80 tackles for loss and exactly 8 negative plays per game, both numbers ranking Ranked 128th among 134 FBS teams this year.

Advantage, Alabama. OU’s offense has failed all season because the line doesn’t give any of its quarterbacks much time to work, emphasizing getting the ball out quickly and emphasizing defending Tide to limit yards after contact and catch.

2. On the ground. Amid its other struggles this season, Oklahoma enters the game ranked 18th nationally in run defense and should be the best group the Tide has faced in a month.

Alabama is second in the nation with 37 rushing touchdowns and averaging 5.12 yards per carry, while the Sooners are giving up just 2.89 yards per attempt and have allowed just 8 rushing touchdowns.

The play of quarterback Jalen Milroe has been crucial to the rushing production of the Crimson Tide, whose 17 rushing touchdowns are 2 more than the 15 he threw for, and the first number is second among quarterbacks to nationally.

3. Red zone. It’s force against force as the Alabama offense meets the Oklahoma defense inside the 20-yard line. Alabama leads the SEC and 9th nationally in scoring touchdowns on 77.5% of its red zone possessions, while OU is 7th in the FBS, limiting opponents to just 14 zone touchdowns red this year.

Most football computer models expect the Crimson Tide to handle the Sooners in this game.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

This model considers Alabama a heavy favorite, as it comes out on top in 81.5% of computer simulations of the game.

That leaves Oklahoma as the presumptive winner in the remaining 18.5 percent of simulations.

How does this translate to expected margin of victory in the game?

Alabama should be 13.3 points better than Oklahoma on the same field with both teams’ current lineups, according to the model’s latest predictions.

More… Alabama vs. Oklahoma Prediction: What the Analytics Say

Alabama is a 13.5-point favorite against Oklahoma, according to updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And that set the money odds for Alabama at -610 and Oklahoma at +440 to win outright.

Oklahoma has the bodies in the front seven to credibly test the Tide’s offensive rhythm early in the game, and can apply decent pressure that forces Jalen Milroe to play in a hurry.

But as has been the case for most of the season, Oklahoma’s offense won’t be able to hold up its end of the bargain, and ultimately the defense will give in without those extra points to defend.

College football HQ chooses…

More… Alabama vs. Oklahoma Score Prediction by Expert Football Model

When: Saturday November 23
Where: Norman, Oklahoma.

Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
Television: ABC network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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