Donald Trump has made fighting crime the center of his successful presidential campaign, saying America’s cities are in decline as violent crime spreads.

At the heart of his plan is the declaration of a national emergency to facilitate the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, using military resources to support immigration and customs enforcement (ICE) operations.

Additionally, Trump has advocated for the reinstatement of stop-and-frisk policing strategies, increased funding for law enforcement, and the imposition of the death penalty on drug and drug traffickers. ‘human beings.

Critics have expressed concerns about the feasibility and legality of these proposals. Extensive research into The National Institute of Justice indicates that immigrants to the United States, including undocumented people, commit crimes at lower rates than native-born citizens.

Additionally, civil rights organizations say the reintroduction of stop-and-frisk policies could lead to racial profiling and erode community trust in law enforcement.

However, the Fraternal Order of Police, the nation’s largest police union, has expressed support for Trump’s crime policies, including a focus on increasing funding and resources for law enforcement , its goal to improve police training, expand community policing initiatives and invest. in technology to fight crime more effectively.

News week contacted criminologists to gather information on the potential impact of the Trump presidency on crime rates in the United States

Jeffrey Fagan, Isidor and Seville Sulzbacher Professor of Law, Columbia Law School

For at least 75 years, crime rates in the United States have risen and fallen cyclically, regardless of who is president and which party controls Congress.

In the recent past, for example, crime rates fell during the eight years of the Bush (GW) presidency, then continued to decline during the eight years of the Obama presidency. They increased under Trump 1, but this may be attributable to the unique circumstances of the COVID outbreak.

Looking further, crime rates were stable during the Eisenhower years (1950s), but increased during the Johnson years (1960s), but remained high throughout the Nixon and Carter years (1970s).

The person or party that occupies the White House has little effect on crime. Crime and law enforcement are local issues and follow predictable patterns consistent with disease outbreaks. Unless the Trump administration federalizes all law enforcement, this is unlikely to change.

Dr. Vincent Sacco, Professor Emeritus, Department of Sociology, Queen’s University

It’s difficult to say what impact the election will have on crime rates since we don’t know what types of specific policies will be implemented and which might be discouraged.

I imagine some of President Trump’s most ardent supporters might think that his mere presence on the national stage could lead to lower rates, but there is very little reason to believe that.

After all, crime rates are complex measures that reflect not only the actions of policy makers, but also the social and economic character of contemporary life. Furthermore, crime tends to be a local matter, and federal governments traditionally can do relatively little beyond passing or strengthening laws and distributing grants to support the maintenance of crime. order at the local level.

It is also important to remember that some of the proposed measures could actually lead to an increase rather than a decrease in crime, particularly plans for widespread deportation of immigrant populations. Such action would undoubtedly lead to considerable family chaos and widespread social disorganization. The effect could very well be an increase rather than a decrease in crime rates.

Stuart Green, Emeritus Professor of Law, University of Oxford

Crime rates vary widely depending on poverty and unemployment rates, demographics, mental and physical health of citizens, prevalence of substance abuse, police and prosecution policies, access to firearms, changing social norms and even the weather.

Crime can increase in one geographic area and decrease in another, and can vary greatly by type. For example, an increase in violent crime may occur simultaneously with a decrease in property crime, and vice versa. In general, the politics of the sitting president have a relatively minor role to play in all of this.

Several distinctive features of a second Trump administration, however, could indicate an exception to this general rule. Trump will be the first president to be a convicted felon himself. Although the federal charges against him (for election interference and mishandling of classified materials) will almost certainly be dismissed, and the state charges in Georgia (also for election interference) will likely be stayed while he is in function, the perception that the commander-in-chief is himself a criminal is likely to persist.

Trump has indicated that he intends to use the powers of the presidency to investigate and prosecute his personal and political enemies, and to pardon his allies (including the January 6 insurrectionists). It remains to be seen which of these threats and promises he will follow through on. But, at the most general level, one might expect that as respect for the rule of law declines, the rate of at least some types of crime will rise accordingly.

Gary Kleck, David J. Bordua Distinguished Professor of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Florida State University

Crime rates could rise or fall over the next four years, but for reasons unrelated to Mr. Trump’s election.

Based on the best available evidence, Mr. Trump’s proposed policies are unlikely to reduce crime rates in the United States. Specifically, a huge body of research has overwhelmingly indicated that harsher penalties do not reduce crime. “Get tough on crime” is politically popular, but has no measurable impact on reducing crime.

The most rigorous research indicates that the use of the death penalty has a negligible impact on murder rates. Additionally, crime-related policies at the federal level have limited relevance to the impact of the criminal justice system on crime, as crime-fighting activities are largely the responsibility of the states. and local governments.

The limited evidence available generally indicates that stricter enforcement of gun control laws does not make them more effective. In addition, there is limited evidence on whether greater use of stops and searches by police reduces crime. Other policies proposed by Trump appear likely to increase income inequality. If they produce this effect, it will tend to increase crime, because inequality increases crime.

Su-Yin Tan, Associate Professor, School of Planning, Public Health and Crime, University of Waterloo

In criminology, “social disorganization theory” explains how social and environmental factors contribute to crime. This suggests that communities with more differences are more likely to experience crime due to weakening social bonds.

Without doubt, Donald TrumpSociety’s policies accentuate societal differences by making the rich richer (e.g., tax breaks) and the poor poorer (e.g., reducing welfare benefits and access to health insurance). People try to “level the playing field” by committing crimes such as theft and burglary. On the other hand, Trump also wants to put more money in everyone’s pockets, fight illegal immigration, etc.

During his first presidency, crime rates actually declined every year, but one could argue that this has been the general trend for decades. As the fourth year of Trump’s presidency approaches in 2020, the FBI reports that violent crime has increased, particularly murders.

One thing is certain: we cannot blame the increase in crime solely on Trump. Crime rates reflect our changing societal attitudes and values, which include our views on policing and police legitimacy, gun ownership, and geopolitics. Crime rates are attributed to many factors and will become even more challenging during times of civil unrest, economic instability, unemployment and societal upheaval.