In the days following the election, I found myself doing strange Google searches. It was mostly a low-intensity curiosity about the economic implications of Donald Trump’s victory – more precisely, if i could do something to prepare to impose harsh tariffs on goods imported into the United States. I briefly considered whether I should buy a car. Not because in fact I to want a car while living in New York. What if this is my last chance before prices go up? A news report about a possible iPhone price hike made me realize I had no idea the last time I replaced mine. And even though I’m not a big shopper, I was wondering if I should buy a new pair of shoes.

I am not alone in this wave of tariff terror. Over the past month, “things to buy before prices” has become a popular Google search, and there are many chat about this on RedditAlso. Anecdotally, I found that “what to do before tariffs” kept coming up in conversations: friends were worried about inflation triggered by tariffs at a Friendsgiving celebration in early November, and my mother mentioned that his decision to finally buy a new car was triggered in part by fears of a return of inflation under Trump. The companies are there is already talk of raising prices in anticipation of the new administration. The other day I had a email marketing de Jolie, which makes filtered shower heads, with an “important message” on pricing. “If you are considering purchasing a Jolie,” the email says, “now is a great time to lock in our current prices.” The implication was clear: buy now, before tariffs take effect. I didn’t expect a popular shower head company on TikTok to raise my blood pressure over prices, but here we are.

It’s unclear whether Trump will keep his campaign promises to impose 60 percent tariffs on goods from China and 10 to 20 percent tariffs on imports from everywhere else. And even if it did, it’s not clear they would fuel inflation, as many economists have warned. (The Yale Budget Lab estimates that Trump’s tariffs, as proposed, would raise prices by up to 5.1%, costing households an additional $7,600 per year.)

Everyone is trying to protect themselves. They’re trying to figure out what to do. And frankly, no one knows.

“We don’t know the nature, magnitude or timing of these tariffs,” says Greg Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. “So we don’t necessarily know the impact of potential shocks on the economy.”

But what East It’s clear that American consumers and businesses are already panicking over tariffs. “Everyone is in a state of anxiety and scratching their heads,” says Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, an economic think tank. “Everyone’s trying to protect themselves. They’re trying to figure out what to do. And frankly, no one knows.”

Let’s start with how companies plan their pricing. For companies that import products or components from abroad, the tariffs would be “the least surprising train disaster ever,” says Ernie Tedeschi, economic director of the Yale Budget Lab, who previously worked for the administration Biden. “Companies that can divert their supply chains in ways that minimize tariffs are certainly already thinking about it.” Fashion brand Steve Madden, for example, said in its latest conference call that it would reduce its supplies to China – a scenario it had been anticipating for some time.

Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain at ITS Logistics, has been working with clients on rate-related contingency plans since the beginning of the year. Thanks to muscle memory of Trump’s 2018 tariffs, he says, many companies are speeding up their shipping schedules — rushing to get as many goods into the country as possible before new tariffs are implemented .

“Shippers realized that tariffs were being put in place, and they all started shipping heavy goods to get ahead of those tariffs,” Brashier told me. This rush, in turn, is driving up shipping container rates, causing traffic jams at ports and increasing the cost of inland transportation and storage. In other words, the fear The application of customs duties could raise prices before a single tariff is actually put in place. Transportation costs, Brashier says, “will be your first canary in the coal mine.”

But there’s only so much prep companies can do. If you’re considering moving production from China, for example, it’s difficult to know where to go. Vietnam may look good, but what if Vietnam was also hit with tariffs? “It’s one thing to say we’re trying to get you out of China,” says Stephen Lamar, CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, a trade association. “But then, what does trade policy say about the direction to take?”

Small businesses have few options. Mike Brey, the owner of Hobby Works, saw the tote bags he sources from China hit with tariffs during Trump’s first term. But while small businesses have a reputation for being nimble, this is not the case on the import side. “We can’t easily pack up and move to Mexico,” says Brey. “It’s harder for a small company to move its manufacturing elsewhere, especially when it’s competing against larger companies for the same manufacturing time.” Due to the obstacles, they did not move production out of China, but instead swallowed the increased costs before passing them on to customers.

Whether or not the tariffs increase costs, experts say companies will likely use them as an excuse to raise prices. “That’s something we’ve seen during this inflationary period,” says Lindsay Owens, executive director of Groundwork Collaborative, a progressive think tank. “It contributes to this kind of vicious cycle in terms of prices for Americans and a virtuous circle in terms of profits for companies.” In 2018, when Trump imposed tariffs on washing machines, they became more expensive. Tumble dryers tooeven though they were not subject to tariffs, the companies believed that customers would assume that two related products were subject to the same inflationary forces.

If the cost of imports increases, even companies whose products are manufactured in the United States risk participating in the price increase. “It’s like a Christmas present,” Tedeschi says. “They have this bargain sitting in their lap. They’re like, ‘Wait, you’re telling me my competitors now have to raise their prices 20%? Well, I’m going to raise my prices 19%. and I still have a competitive advantage But now I can add 19% pure profit I think that’s where it’s really going to bite consumers.

So how can consumers prepare for the tariffs? The economists I spoke with didn’t have many solid answers. They did, however, make some suggestions on what consumers can watch for. Many items, including clothing, electronics, furniture and cars, should become more expensive when Trump’s proposed tariffs take effect. And we’ll likely have a heads-up, as prices often require a comment period, so consumers who follow the news will have a chance to anticipate significant price increases.

“If they can speed up the big purchases that they know they’re going to make, they should do it,” says Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute. “So if you know you’re going to have to buy a new laptop or you know you’re going to have to buy a new Apple Watch, those are things that haven’t been taxed yet.”

Tedeschi says consumers can now research the sources of any major purchase they are considering. But he points out that just because a product is made in the United States doesn’t mean all the parts are. “Even your Ford F-150 has a lot of imported parts,” he says. “So you’re not going to completely avoid customs duties by buying a domestic car.”

Some consumers are I already have an advantage on large purchases. On Reddit, one person said they were planning to buy new tires as soon as possible, and maybe get an extra phone. Others mentioned buying new laptops and computers, predicted that Temu and Shein products would become more expensive and even considered starting a garden in case food prices rise.

It’s just one wave after another of uncertainty.

So if Trump ends up imposing tariffs, when can consumers expect price increases? Brey, the owner of Hobby Works, says it won’t take long. “The increase in customs duties is passed on to the consumer very, very quickly, like a manufacturing cycle,” he says. “That’s it – three to six months tops.”

Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, predicts that rising prices won’t show up until late 2025 or early 2026. But he cautions against trying to buy ahead of time. “You should consider the possibility that the price of these products will increase,” he says. “But we can’t plan policy, it’s impossible.”

The truth is that we are heading towards a period of unpredictability and upheaval. Savvy consumers can be on the lookout for pricing announcements, freight price increases, and comments from companies during earnings calls regarding their pricing and sourcing plans. But if Trump follows through on his promise of across-the-board tariffs, there may be nowhere to hide.

“What do consumers and small businesses hate more than anything? It’s uncertainty,” Brey says. “And in this case, it’s just one wave of uncertainty after another.”

Emilie Stewart is a senior correspondent at Business Insider, writing about business and economics.

Read the original article on Business Insider