For desperately optimistic San Francisco 49ers fans, there will be a path through this brutal maze and into the playoffs.

They will show the extremely close race for the NFC West crownwhich could remain in play until the last week of the season. They’ll keep their fingers crossed with injuries, hoping three of their top four players — quarterback Brock Purdy, defensive end Nick Bosa and offensive tackle Trent Williams — all come out of the tunnel next week and turn things around against the Buffalo Bills (9-2). And they’ll certainly avoid thinking about how eerily similar this campaign has become to the 2020 season, when San Francisco was plagued by health and identity issues following a Super Bowl loss the previous season, leading to an extremely disappointing 6-10 record that inspired an eventual roster retooling.

On this last point, it is difficult to ignore the symmetry of this lost 2020 season. These 49ers were 5-6 in December, looking like a shadow of their former selves and hosting the Bills in a game that seemed like the last best chance to save the season. San Francisco lost 34-24, in a game that was never as close as that score suggested. By the end, it was clear that the season was over and the 49ers had a lot of work to do.

A week from now, the same thing could and probably will be said about the 2024 49ers, who look nothing like the team that came from last season’s Super Bowl loss. You can choose any 10 minute increment within Sunday’s agonizing 38-10 loss to the Green Bay Packers — the 49ers’ worst loss under Shanahan since 2018 — and finds alarming traits throughout. A team that couldn’t dictate the run or find anything explosive throwing the ball. A defensive front that was hit in the ear by Packers running back Josh Jacobs on his first carry of the game and never seemed to recover. A general lack of concentration which led to nine sanctions, many of which occur at critical moments. And a damning display of disappointing football that suggests these 49ers won’t be able to recover, just like the last edition who lost in a Super Bowl the previous season.

“The whole game was (disappointing),” Shanahan said afterward. “To name the biggest (disappointment), the first half, the run defense was really disappointing. … Their ability to control that clock in the first half was one of the worst I’ve been a part of until halftime.

Shanahan said the word “embarrassed” several times during his postgame press conference, applying the label to the entire team, which seemed like the appropriate reaction to a loss that’s half lesson and half warning.

The lesson: The 49ers are as lethal as any other team that can’t survive without a marquee starting quarterback, an elite rusher and a tone-setting offensive tackle. When they’re injured, they’re vulnerable, especially against top-tier NFC teams, which the Packers are.

And the disclaimer: Let this be the standard that ends all talk about Shanahan’s ability to make it work with any quarterback in his plan, especially if it’s a one-game situation. It’s a mistake that has already been proven, but is also repeatedly forgotten every time someone dares to bring Purdy’s name into a conversation about the best QBs in the league. Yes, he has had his ups and downs this season. But rarely has the offense looked so flat and seemingly determined to shoot itself in the foot.

If anything, this Packers loss is an instant reminder of what life can be like when you don’t have a reliable quarterback to run Shanahan’s offense. Granted, not all of the problems were simply Purdy’s absence, but the inability to find a solution during the game surely had something to do with the quarterback spot. It turns out that the system generally looks better when the quarterback who adapts and masters that system is the one in charge. That’s food for thought this offseason, where there will inevitably be discussions about the cost of extending Purdy’s contract versus his actual value to the franchise.

Of course, that’s a conversation for later. For now, the focus is on what this loss means for the 49ers. With the Los Angeles Rams lose to Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday nightThe NFC West remains in the hands of the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals – both sitting at 6-5 and simultaneously competing for who will win the division and who will try to qualify for the final wild card spot in NFC. At 5-6, the 49ers aren’t exactly a slouch when it comes to the playoffs, but while the math is still there, the spirit of what’s reaching them is problematic.

Purdy was already having consistency issues before his latest shoulder soreness knocked him out of the game against the Packers. It’s unclear how big of a problem this will be when (or if) he returns. While it’s certainly suggestive that in a game the 49ers were expected to win against Green Bay, his shoulder was enough of a concern to sideline him. The same goes for Bosa’s hip and Williams’ ankle. Both may be close to returning, but neither is guaranteed to play at their peak level – for a team that needs them to play at a high level right now. And if that wasn’t enough, two other key players, defensive tackle Jordan Elliott and offensive guard Aaron Banks, both left Sunday with concussion issues.

Now, with the loss to the Packers, the intersection of those health concerns heads toward the biggest of cross-country road games: Sunday night’s prime-time game against a streaking Bills team. A franchise that will be well-rested, coming off a bye week, and chasing the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs after beating the Kansas City Chiefs in convincing fashion in Week 11 Although this kind of victory usually raises fears of disappointment in the next game, the bye week and the playoff seeding stakes for the Bills effectively guarantee that they will show up ready to rock.

If we’re honest about what the 49ers are facing schedule-wise, the time to win was against the Packers. The fact that they couldn’t win on Sunday makes this game against the Bills and all those that followed it a pseudo playoff game. Basically, this is where the 49ers are. They are in a postseason playoff tournament that begins this week. And after the bills, it’s Chicago Bears (still working out their own issues but improving)the Rams (who beat the 49ers in September), the Miami Dolphins (who are a handful with Tua Tagovailoa under center), the Detroit Lions (Super Bowl favorites, winners of nine in a row and looking for revenge on the loss in the NFC title game), and finally, an away game against the Arizona Cardinals, who are no longer being pushed around.

If we want to alleviate San Francisco’s problems, we don’t need to address injuries, focus and game inconsistency. We can watch this ascending break – which is more like climbing Mt. Everest at this point – and it tells us everything we need to know.

The 49ers’ 2024 season is over. We just haven’t seen it play out yet.