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    • Satellite photos show Israeli strike likely hit major Iranian Revolutionary Guard missile base
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    Satellite photos show Israeli strike likely hit major Iranian Revolutionary Guard missile base

    Umito Posted on

    Jon Gambrell
    | Associated Press

    Dubai, United Arab Emirates — Israel’s attack on Iran likely damaged a base run by the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, which manufactures ballistic missiles and launches rockets as part of its own space program, satellite images analyzed Tuesday by the Associated Press.

    The damage to the Shahroud base raises new questions about the Israeli attack on Saturday morning, especially since it took place in an area previously unrecognized by Tehran and involved the Guard, a powerful force in the within the Iranian theocracy which has so far remained silent on possible damage. suffered from the attack. Iran has only identified the Israeli attacks as taking place in the provinces of Ilam, Khuzestan and Tehran – not in the rural province of Semnan where the base is located.

    It also potentially further limits the Guard’s ability to manufacture the solid-fuel ballistic missiles it needs to stockpile as a deterrent against Israel. Tehran has long relied on this arsenal because it cannot purchase the advanced Western weapons that Israel and Tehran’s Gulf Arab neighbors have armed themselves with over the years, particularly from the United States.

    Satellite photos previously analyzed by the AP of two military bases near Tehran also targeted by Israel show that the sites Iran uses to manufacture its ballistic missiles have been destroyed, further damaging its program.

    “We don’t know whether Iranian production was crippled as some say or whether it was simply damaged,” said Fabian Hinz, a missile expert and researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who studies Iran. “We have seen enough images to show that there is an impact.”

    The Iranian mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Israeli military declined to answer the AP’s questions, but sent a previous statement acknowledging that it had targeted “missile manufacturing facilities” in the attack.

    Images show destruction of major building at Shahroud base

    High-resolution satellite images from Planet Labs PBC taken and analyzed by the AP show the damage at the Guard’s Shahroud Space Center in Semnan, about 370 kilometers (230 miles) northeast of the Iranian capital, Tehran. Semnan also hosts the Imam Khomeini Space Center, used by Iran’s civilian space program.

    Images showed that a major, central building at the Shahroud Space Center had been destroyed, with the shadow of its still-standing frame visible in the image taken Tuesday morning. Vehicles could be seen gathered around the site, likely those of officials inspecting the damage, with more cars than usual parked at the main entrance to the site nearby.

    Three small buildings located just south of the main structure also appear to have been damaged. Iran has constructed new buildings on the base in recent months. Another hangar to the northeast of the main building also appears to have been damaged.

    Iran has not acknowledged any attack in Shahroud. However, given the damage to several structures, this suggests that the Israeli attack included targeted strikes on the base. Low-resolution images taken since the attack showed signs of damage to the site not seen before the assault – further indicating that Israeli missile strikes were the cause.

    “We cannot 100 percent rule out the possibility that it was something else, but it is almost certain that this building was damaged because of an Israeli attack,” Hinz said.

    Since the large building was surrounded by earthen berms, that suggests it contained powerful explosives, said Hinz, who has long studied the site. This central site likely handles solid propellant mixing and casting operations, he added.

    The large boxes next to the building are also likely missile engine crates, Hinz said. Their sizes suggest they could be used for Iran’s Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile and the Fattah 1, a missile that Iran says is capable of reaching Mach 15, or 15 times the speed of sound. Both were used in Iranian attacks on Israel during the Israel-Hamas war and in the subsequent ground invasion of Lebanon.

    The Shahroud strike, coupled with others across the country, likely put more pressure on Iran’s theocracy, particularly as it assesses the damage to its main weapons arsenal and attempts to downplay the attack .

    “Thanks to the preparedness and vigilance of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the rapid response of the country’s air defense, limited damage was caused to some of the affected points,” the Iranian Minister of Defense said. Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi during a meeting with foreign diplomats on Tuesday in Tehran. “The necessary measures were taken immediately to restore the damaged equipment to working order.”

    U.S. fears Guard space program serves as cover for missile research

    A short distance from the destroyed buildings is a concrete launch pad used by the Guard, which has successfully conducted a series of missions to send satellites into space using mobile launchers. The Guard, which answers only to 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, revealed its secret space program in 2020.

    The U.S. intelligence community’s Global Threat Assessment for 2024 says Iran’s continued development of satellite launchers would “reduce the time to production” of an intercontinental ballistic missile because it uses similar technology.

    Intercontinental ballistic missiles can be used to launch nuclear weapons. Iran is now producing uranium close to weapons-grade levels after its nuclear deal with world powers collapsed. Tehran has enough enriched uranium for “several” nuclear weapons, if it chooses to produce them, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly warned.

    Iran has always denied wanting to acquire nuclear weapons and maintains that its space program, like its nuclear activities, is for purely civilian purposes. However, US intelligence agencies and the IAEA claim that Iran had an organized military nuclear program until 2003. Parchin, one of two military bases near Tehran targeted by Israel, saw a building linked to this program destroyed.

    “As with the Iranian nuclear program, you don’t build the system itself, you build all the technology under the guise of a civilian program,” Hinz said.

    Iran could then make the decision to obtain this weapon – or to use its knowledge as a bargaining chip with the West over international sanctions.

    But for now, satellite photos suggest that Iran is still trying to assess the consequences of the Israeli attack.

    “The picture that is emerging is one of significant damage to Iranian air defenses as well as missile launch facilities, which would aim to show the Iranians that they are vulnerable to further strikes if they attempt to retaliate,” analysis published Monday by “said two experts from the British Royal United Services Institute.

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