Houston Astros

2024 record: 88-73

1st place, AL West

Team ERA: 3.74 (6th in MLB)

Team OPS: .740 (8th in MLB)

What went well

On June 18, the Astros were 10 games behind in the division, but Houston proved once again that it’s a long season. The Astros outlasted the Seattle Mariners and the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers to win the division for the fourth straight year and the seventh time in the last eight years. The Astros’ offensive core of Yordan Alvarez (168 wRC+), Kyle Tucker (180 wRC+), Jose Altuve (127 wRC+) and Alex Bregman (118 wRC+) all had productive years, although a shin injury limited Tucker at 78 matches. Framber Valdez (3.08 xFIP) had another ace-level season. Hunter Brown (3.47 xFIP) recovered from nine runs allowed in his third start of the season to have a 2.88 ERA over his final 27 starts of the year. Likewise, rookie Spencer Arrighetti (4.01 xFIP) has a 3.31 ERA and 106 strikeouts in 87 innings over his last 15 starts. Yusei Kikuchi (2.74 xFIP) was excellent in 10 starts after being acquired at the trade deadline.

What didn’t work

The Astros’ seven-year streak in the ALCS ended when they were swept by the Detroit Tigers and former Astros manager AJ Hinch in the two-game Wild Card Series in Houston. The Astros’ prize addition last offseason, Josh Hader, coughed up Game 2 of the series by allowing a three-run double to Andy Ibanez. In a way, it was a microcosm of Hader’s season as he recorded a career-high eight losses despite a 2.93 xFIP. Two offseasons ago, the Astros gave a big contract to first baseman Jose Abreu, who was released after posting a 0 wRC+ in 120 plate appearances. In his place, Jon Singleton had a 105 wRC+ in 405 plate appearances, which is good but not enough to justify the money Houston gave Abreu. In 2023, Chas McCormick hit 22 home runs with 19 stolen bases and had a 133 wRC+ in 457 plate appearances, but he was injured and had a 66 wRC+ in 267 plate appearances this year. This allowed Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubon to get a lot of playing time. Meyers (86 wRC+) and Dubon (87 wRC+) had 513 and 428 plate appearances, respectively, and that was too much for players of their caliber.

Injuries limited Cristian Javier to seven starts, Luis Garcia missed the entire season and Lance McCullers Jr. missed the entire season for the second straight year and third time in the last six years. Ultimately, Justin Verlander had the worst season of his career. The 41-year-old who returned to Houston via a mid-season trade in 2023 and finished with a 3.22 ERA in 27 starts, had a 5.13 xFIP in 17 starts in 2024 and was waived from the playoff roster.

Fantastic inclinations

** Yainer Diaz (117 wRC+) followed an outstanding rookie campaign with an impressive first full season in the major leagues. Diaz hit .299 with 16 homers, 84 RBIs and 70 runs scored during his age-25 season. He couldn’t repeat the prodigious power he showed in 2023 when he hit 23 homers in 104 games and had a .256 ISO, but he had a 17% strikeout percentage and hit .299 in 585 at bats. Diaz proved he could really do it. He’s one of the best receivers in Fantasy heading into 2025 and he has the potential to hit for more power than the .142 ISO he had in 2024.

**Jeremy Pena hit .266 with 15 home runs, 20 stolen bases, 78 runs scored and 78 RBIs. It was a solid fantasy season for the 27-year-old shortstop, but not exactly a breakout year. I’m not sure there is one at this point for the former ALCS and World Series MVP. Pena’s strikeout percentage has improved from 24 percent in 2022 to 20 percent in 2023 to 17 percent in 2024. Since Pena is not a power hitter, he will need to have a high BABIP season to lead to an aberrant batting average for a breakout. That hasn’t happened yet and would be impossible to predict, but if he can maintain his 17 percent strikeout percentage, he has a chance.

**Ronel Blanco had a 2.80 ERA in 29 starts this year, but it’s impossible to ignore his 4.09 xFIP. He allowed a BABIP of .220, which was the lowest among qualified starting pitchers, and he had an on-base percentage of 83 percent, which was the highest among qualified starting pitchers. Blanco is not without merit, his strikeout percentage of 24 percent was 20th among qualified starters, but his SIERA of 4.17 was tied for 18th among qualified starters with Michael Wacha. He is unlikely to live up to his likely expensive 2025 draft price, given that his success in 2024 was largely due to factors beyond his control.

Key free agents

Alex Bregman, Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Verlander, Hector Neris, Jason Heyward

Team needs

The Astros are like most playoff teams in that they could use some other starter and bullpen depth, but don’t need an overhaul. What makes this offseason unique for Houston is that once again one of its key players is hitting free agency, Alex Bregman. The Astros have been through similar situations before when they let George Springer and Carlos Correa enter free agency, but now they face the added challenge of their payroll. Houston owes Abreu $19.5 million and Rafael Montero $11.5 million next year and neither of them are still on the 40-man roster. Ryan Pressly’s $14 million option is vested. Javier owes $52 million through 2027 and McCullers Jr. owes $34 million through 2026. That’s a lot of money committed to players that, frankly, won’t help them much, if at all, next year.

MLB Trade Rumors estimates the Astros’ payroll, including arbitration and pre-arbitration players, to be $212 million entering the offseason. For reference, the Astros finished the season with a payroll of $244 million according to Roster Resource. Houston is in a precarious position with its payroll given that Bregman is arguably the best free agent player this offseason not named Juan Soto. The Astros will have to get creative when it comes to retaining Bregman, if that’s the route they choose, while also making sure they have enough pitching to get back to the postseason.