close
close

Apre-salomemanzo

Breaking: Beyond Headlines!

    • How Montana’s Senate race could hold all the cards
    aecifo

    How Montana’s Senate race could hold all the cards

    Umito Posted on

    play

    WASHINGTON – Montana is generally not the state that decides elections. But this year, he holds all the cards – at least for the U.S. Senate.

    In just a week, Montana voters will choose between a former Navy SEAL Republican new to politics, or a third-generation farmer and incumbent Democrat hoping to prove the polls wrong.

    Montanans’ choice will likely determine which political party controls the upper room for at least the next two years, as Democrats fight for every seat to maintain their majority.

    Democrats currently control the Senate by a slim 51-49 margin, so Republicans need just two seats to flip the chamber. One is already almost guaranteed: Democratic-turned-independent Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia is retiring at the end of his term, leaving a safe place for Republicans in the Mountain State.

    Montana Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is the Republicans’ second-best target.

    He has represented Montana in the Senate for 18 years. At that time, he became an oddity in his own state: Republicans swept both houses of the state legislature and every other statewide office, including the offices of governor, attorney general, Secretary of State and the other seat in the U.S. Senate. The last time the state chose a Democrat as president was in 1992, despite a Democratic governor from 2005 to 2020.

    Less than 20 years ago, Montana was narrowly Republican, but it has gone deep red. For example, the state chose Sen. John McCain over then-Sen. Barack Obama by just 3 percentage points in 2008, but chose former President Donald Trump over current President Joe Biden by 16 percentage points in 2020.

    Tester managed to hold on despite these changes, beating his GOP opponents by 3.5 percentage points in 2018 and 3.7 percentage points in 2012.

    But the Republicans – and election forecasters – expect this time to be different. Tester’s previous victories relied on a dying breed of voters willing to support candidates from different parties for the President and for the Senate, also known as a bill separator.

    He faces Tim Sheehy, a veteran and wealthy entrepreneur. Sheehy was personally recruited led by Republican Sen. Steve Daines, the other Montana senator who heads the Senate’s campaign arm, the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

    Sheehy’s resume and support from the state’s top Republican leaders are an indicator that Republicans think he is a formidable candidate who gives them a good chance against the proven incumbent.

    So far, polls indicate they may be right: Sheehy has constantly directed Tester in state investigations. But Democrats hope Tester’s deep ties to the state and a major fundraiser will help him keep his seat and help the party hold the Senate.

    Tester “has such a machine — Democratic politics in Montana revolves around him,” said Chuck Denowh, a Montana political strategist and former executive director of the Montana GOP.

    But as Montana voters have moved further and further to the right, Denowh explained, “it’s lumped into what Democrats are doing in Congress.” So people are worried about the economy, the border or certain social issues. And all of these national issues work against Tester when it comes to Montana.

    A farmer versus a Navy SEAL

    Tester, 68, is a third-generation farmer who works the land his grandfather first farmed in the early 20th century.

    He started in Montana state politics in the late 1990s and served in the state Senate before being elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006. He serves on the powerful Appropriations Committee, helping to control purse strings of the country, and heads the Senate Committee on Veterans Affairs. .

    He presented himself as an independent lawmaker who clashed with members of his own party on issues such as immigration, notably touting his history of “collaborate with former President Donald Trump to secure the southern border. » He worked to separate himself from the national Democratic Party and did not support Vice President Kamala Harris for president, although he aligned with an electoral initiative to protect the right to abortion.

    Sheehy is using a model supported by Trump in 2024: presenting himself as a political outsider who would oppose Democratic leadership in Washington. His campaign focused on issues such as completing the southern border wall and limiting migration, fighting inflation by repealing energy regulations, and protecting gun rights.

    Sheehy, 38, grew up in Minnesota before joining the Navy, becoming a SEAL and receiving a Purple Heart. He and his wife moved to Montana in 2014, where he founded Bridger Aerospace, an aerial firefighting company. He also owns a ranch in the middle of the state.

    His net worth is up to $290 millionaccording to its latest financial disclosure. If elected, he will be one of richest members of Congress. The tester has a net worth of up to $6.5 million.

    Neither candidate responded to an interview request for this story.

    Even though Sheehy has the advantage in this cycle, said Democratic political consultant Matt McKenna, Tester has repeatedly survived close races where he seemed vulnerable, relying on his deep, long-term ties to the State.

    “Anyone who has ever bet on the conventional wisdom of Washington has lost money at some point” by betting against Tester, McKenna said.

    Campaign hotspots

    Both candidates have sought to highlight each other’s weaknesses as the campaign draws closer to Election Day on Nov. 5.

    During the candidates’ debate in late September, Tester criticized Sheehy for repeating offensive stereotypes on Native Americans – a key voting bloc in the state. Sheehy said his comments were “insensitive” but said he came from the military, where “inappropriate jokes” are common.

    Sheehy also came under scrutiny following a gunshot wound to his right arm, which he said it came from friendly fire in Afghanistan but did not report it at the time. Years later, he told a forest ranger in Glacier National Park that he accidentally inflicted the injury on himself. Sheehy said he did not disclose the injury while he was in Afghanistan to protect his platoon mates.

    Sheehy attacked Tester because he was one of main beneficiaries of lobbyists’ money in Congress, and argued that he had rubber-stamped President Joe Biden’s agenda. Tester voted with Biden 91% of time in 2021 and 2022, according to FiveThirtyEightand 94.6% of the time in 2023according to ABC News.

    The candidates also both sought to address a particular problem for Montanans: the influx of foreigners who have moved to Montana since the coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent surge in housing prices.

    Median home sales prices in Montana increased 77.8% between May 2019 and May 2024, according to Redfin.

    Tester sought to portray Sheehy as one of these “rich out of state” this contributed to Montanans’ high cost of living and said the government should offer tax credits to encourage construction. Sheehy said deregulation is necessary to speed up construction and lower housing costs.

    The accommodation also has become a major problem in the presidential election. Harris has released a number of proposals to address the housing crisis, including offering people $25,000 for a down payment on their first home. Trump also called for reducing home construction regulations and providing tax incentives for home buyers.

    Rinse with silver

    Tester aims to race around Montana, despite the increasingly national the attention the state has received in recent months.

    Still, the battle between Sheehy and Tester has broad policymaking implications, depending on which party wins control of the Senate. Republicans hope they can win the House and pave the way for Trump’s agenda if he is re-elected — and vice versa for Democrats and Harris.

    Whichever party wins the Senate will also have power over the confirmation process for presidential cabinet members and judges, from federal district courts to the U.S. Supreme Court, where four of the nine judges will soon be over 70 years old.

    This made Montana race one of the most expensive in the country. Tester has spent more than $83 million this cycle, while Sheehy has spent about $22 million, according to the latest campaign finance filings.

    But apart from expenses significantly boosted both campaigns: outside groups spent $76 million supporting Tester and opposing Sheehy, while $79 million was spent supporting Sheehy and opposing Tester.

    Umito
    View all posts

    You Might Also Like