Leading economists and various financial experts have sounded the alarm that Donald Trump’s plans for a second presidential administration increase the federal deficit by billions of dollars, worsen inflationand, ultimately, would push the American economy towards a recession (or even a real recession). depression). Oddly, it appears that Trump’s top campaign operative, Elon Musk, agrees that the candidate’s policies could harm the economy.

For the second time in a week, Musk eerily suggested that Trump would bring economic “hardship” to America, a claim that would be funny if it didn’t seem so likely. The first instance occurred during a “Telephone Town Hall” hosted on the tech billionaire’s X website, during which Musk said, enigmatically: “We need to reduce our expenses to live within our means. And this necessarily involves temporary difficulties, but it will guarantee long-term prosperity. Musk, who was talking about reducing the national debt when he made the comments, did not specify what he was referring to.

While that may have spooked some voters, Musk did nothing to allay their fears when, on Monday, the tech billionaire appeared to once again affirm his vision of the adversity ahead for Americans. Musk did this by responding to a right-wing account on had written a speech about a coming economic “debacle”:

If Trump succeeds in imposing mass evictions, combined with Elon hacking the government, as crazy as it sounds, laying people off and reducing the deficit – there will initially be a severe overreaction of the economy – this economy will be supported by debt (generating asset bubbles) and artificially suppressed wages (because of illegal immigration). Markets will collapse. But when the storm passes and everyone realizes that we are on firmer footing, we will see a rapid recovery towards a healthier and more sustainable economy. History could be made in the next two years.

Musk replied: “That seems about right. »

Full of economists have warned that Trump’s plans could spell disaster for the American economy. His plans to deport millions of illegal immigrants, give huge tax cuts to the richest Americans, weaken the US dollarAnd institute global tariffshave all been called terrible ideas that could increase the federal deficit, spur inflation and cause chaos. Trump’s advisers have adopted plans — such as massive cuts in federal spending and the firing of tens of thousands of civil servants — that are sure to cause more chaos. That said, it’s downright bizarre to see Musk — a key Trump ally — admit this, while he finds himself in the middle of one of the tightest presidential races in modern history.

Why would Musk do this? It seems remarkable that one of Musk’s heroes is the current president of Argentina, Javier Milei, who is credited with bring a “chainsaw” to the national government. Milei, an avowed “free market,” “anti-woke” libertarian, took office in December 2023 and instituted what he calls an “austerity” budgetcharacterized by economical “shock treatment”. This strategy has included slashing government spending on welfare programs, devaluing the peso, and eliminating thousands of government jobs, all in the hope of a vague libertarian enthusiasm in the near or distant future.

The parallels between Milei’s government and plans adopted by Trump’s allies are worth examining. While the United States and Argentina are two very different countries, the ideology that drives Milei’s transformation of his government and the ideology that fuels many of Trump’s advisors are essentially the same. ProPublica recently revealed the goals adopted by Trump’s powerful advisor, and right-wing libertarianRussell Vought, said to be a key figure in Project 2025, the anti-government effort promulgated by the Heritage Foundation. Vought also said he wanted to radically reorganize the federal government and traumatize career civil servants. Musk himself has advocated the creation of a “government effectiveness” task force, which would “audit” public agencies to look for inefficiencies. Like Milei’s strategy, Trump’s advisers see a leaner, cleaner bureaucracy as the key to long-term national wealth.

That said, Argentina under Milei doesn’t seem to be experiencing much wealth. In the first six months of his presidency, the country’s poverty rate rose 10 percent, and last year its inflation rate soared to 211 percent, the highest level in 32 years. Prices of homeless And job loss we saw an increase. Many Argentinians literally “rummaged” through dumpsters to surviveReuters reported in March. Inflation in the country slow down nowbut only after having climbed up the highest rate in the world. When Milei took office last December, his commentjust like that of Elon Musk, said: “We know that in the short term, the situation will get worse. » Mission accomplished, I guess.

For some reason, Trump supporters view him as a competent and successful businessman and keep good memories of the economy under his presidency. Despite these widely held beliefs, ample credible economic data suggests that Trump actually inherited a strong economy (as was the case in a period of sustained recovery since the 2008 financial crisis) of the outgoing Obama administration and that Trump’s policies helped undermine this strong economyIt doesn’t help him.

Ironically, Trump’s economic plans appear designed to harm his voting base – a situation his voters clearly do not understand. For example, Trump said he wanted end social security taxes. Voters at a recent rally applauded for this proposalapparently because they don’t like taxes. However, Social Security only continues to exist thanks to taxes. Trump’s suggestion is the equivalent of a bank telling a small business it’s going to cut its line of credit; the business would fail and die. Ending taxes on the SS risked starvation and, ultimately, bankrupt the program within a few yearswhich plunged tens of millions of Americans into poverty. Conversely, Harris announced plans to save the program by raising taxes on the richest 1 percent of Americans.

The positive side of all this is that if Trump won the presidency and tried to pass many of his team’s outlandish, right-wing economic proposals, he would obviously need Congressional approval to pass them. He is unlikely to receive such approval. That said, the mere fact that such harmful policies are being launched is scary enough.