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Election 2024: Polls show DC, Maryland and Virginia leaning left
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Election 2024: Polls show DC, Maryland and Virginia leaning left

With just a week until the election, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are presenting their final offers to voters heading to the polls on November 5.

Harris participated in a rally at the Ellipse in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday evening, where she delivered her “closing argument,” urging the nation to “turn the page” to a new era and away from Trump.

Meanwhile, Trump delivered a speech to the press at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach on Tuesday morning before traveling to Pennsylvania for a community roundtable on “Building America’s Future” at Drexel Hill and an evening rally in Allentown. He held its own advocacy rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday.

The two candidates remain locked in a very tight race. Harris continues to have the advantage in national polls, according to 270toWin. Their average of 14 recent national polls shows Harris with a narrow 0.9% lead over Trump (48.1% to 47.2%).

Polls also give Trump a slight lead in some key states that could decide the election. All polls are extremely close and within the margin of error.

While there are some close races here in the DMV, many lean left – which is nothing new for us. Here’s a look at polling data on some of the key races in our region.

DC Query

DC has always leaned heavily toward blue. The district has consistently voted Democratic in every presidential election since gaining its three electoral votes through ratification of the 23rd Amendment in 1961. No Republican has ever won an electoral vote.

In the 2020 election, Joe Biden received about 17 votes for every vote for Donald Trump, according to 270 to Win and in the 2024 primaries, Biden overwhelmingly received more support from Democrats than Trump saw from Republicans.

Nikki Haley won the Republican primary in the District with 63% of the vote to Trump’s 33%, showing that even DC conservatives may be turning away from MAGA ideology.

Early voting began in Washington DC on Monday, so there isn’t much data on how ballots are being cast, but the barometer says the district will swing solidly Democratic again and all three electoral votes will go to Harris.

Maryland Poll

Maryland also leans clearly Democratic. The latest global survey data from RealClearPolitics puts Harris above Trump by nearly 30 percentage points in the state, 62.2% to 33%.

A Investigation by the Washington Post and the University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement conducted between October 17 and 22 showed similar results, with Harris polling at 61% while Trump polling was at 33%.

According to NBC early voting dashboardmore than 1 million early ballots were cast in Maryland, 60% of them by registered Democrats, 25% by registered Republicans and 10% by independents.

The same Post-UMD survey showed Democratic leanings in another key Maryland race: Alsobrooks against Hogan.

Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan are facing off for the open state Senate seat.

It’s a race that has captured as much national attention as it could be the key determine which political party will lead the U.S. Senate for the next four years.

The survey shows that Alsbrooks maintains a clear lead of 12% over Hogan (52% to 40%). This exceptionally competitive race has already raised at least $84.6 million in combined contributions, according to a Washington Post report from October.

Virginia Poll

Virginia is the DMV’s biggest draw. Although not a battleground state, it is a swing state, frequently alternating between Democratic and Republican control.

For more than three decades, beginning with Nixon, Virginia ran as a Republican. But that overthrown in 2008 with the election of Barack Obama and he has become a Democrat since then.

Currently, RealClearPolitics places Harris ahead of Trump in the Commonwealth, 49.8% to 44%. The RCP carried out an average of five polls between the beginning of September and October.

NBC early voting data also shows strong Democratic turnout in Virginia. More than 1.6 million ballots were cast in the state – 52% Democrats, 38% Republicans and 10% independents.