Tesla (TSLA -1.14%) Shares are up 20% over the past three trading days, driven by the market’s positive reaction to the company’s third-quarter financial results. The company reported adjusted earnings per share that beat Wall Street estimates. It also helped founder and CEO Elon Musk predict vehicle growth of between 20 and 30 percent for 2025.

Momentum is picking up for the company that crushed it over the past decade, with shares up 1,600% since October 2014. But investors are rightly concerned about what the future holds. Where is this summit going? stock of electric vehicles (EV) will it be in 10 years?

Still a car company

In the three months ended September 30, Tesla generated $25.2 billion in revenue. Although the company operates in the energy generation and storage sector, 79% of its revenue is linked to car sales. Tesla is above all a car manufacturer, and it is very likely that this will still be the case in ten years.

This might not bode well for the stock price. Tesla was seeing fantastic growth and improved margins by rolling out electric vehicles in a market that was largely reserved for it. But there is now a lot of competition, which limits the company’s ability to exercise pricing power.

In addition, car manufacturers are subject to macroeconomic forces which are beyond their control. Over the past two years, rising interest rates have put pressure on consumer demand for Tesla vehicles. There is also the challenge of ensuring adequate inputs for production.

If in 10 years, Tesla still makes most of its money from selling electric vehicles, I am convinced that the stock will be a loser for investors who expect much more from the company.

Hoping for a self-reliant future

I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla’s primary revenue driver and business operations in 2034 were the same as today. However, Tesla’s strongest supporters envision a future in which the company will be radically different than it is today. If this becomes a reality, the stock could continue to be a big winner.

Tesla could exploit a autonomous robotaxis fleet a day who work around the clock and generate high margin revenue for the company. Musk previously said the service could have “near infinite” demand.

It’s hard for anyone to guess when or if this dream will come true. Musk said the Cybercab would go into production in 2026, and that fully autonomous driving technology, the version developed that doesn’t require human intervention, is still not real. No one knows if and when these things will happen, but what we do know is that Musk has a history of pushing back key deadlines.

Making predictions about technological advancements and adoption is extremely difficult to do accurately. Investors should adopt the same mentality when looking at Tesla, knowing that there is a lot of uncertainty.

Market optimism

Tesla shares have been big winners, but they are currently trading about 35% off their peak price.

Despite this, the stock appears extremely expensive, selling at a price price/earnings ratio (P/E) of around 74, more than double the average of S&P500. I think this reflects market expectations that Tesla will achieve its autonomous vehicle goals in the future, perhaps within the next decade.

But no one really has any idea of ​​the end result. And current valuations provide a lot of optimism about what the future could look like.

Tesla has been crushing it for investors’ wallets over the past 10 years. However, I would not be surprised if the stock underperforms the Nasdaq Composite hint over the next decade.