The Walt Disney Co. is betting that James Gorman can succeed in a two-person succession.

The former Morgan Stanley CEO executed what is considered one of the smoothest succession processes in the company’s recent history: He announced plans in May to leave the investment bank; revealed that three internal candidates were in the running; chose one (Ted Pick); and he did it while keeping others in the business after it ended.

Gorman will become chairman of Disney’s board in January, with the top priority being finding a successor to CEO Bob Iger, with a goal of an “early 2026” decision.

It’s no easy task, two years have passed since Iger returned to the company with the promise of re-sorting his estate, as well as a contract extension that keeps him at Disney until 2026 .

“What you have now is an extremely powerful CEO, but whoever follows him in that role won’t have the same informal power,” says Henning Piezunka, associate professor of management at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business. . “In that sense, it’s a somewhat thankless job to have: while formally you get exactly the same position, unofficially you have a very, very different power base.”

And while the last time Disney chose a new CEO it was obviously Iger’s call to name Bob Chapek his successor, this time the board is very, very engaged and there’s no shortage of of strategies and candidates to explore. The Hollywood Reporter takes a close look at some of Gorman’s options for the research process:

More seasoning required: odds 5-1

Gorman’s decision to say that Disney is aiming for a CEO announcement in 2026 suggests that the board believes internal candidates — including Dana Walden, Josh D’Amaro, Jimmy Pitaro and Alan Bergman — are not quite there yet. ready to take over. But the 2026 date does not mean that Disney cannot act in 2025.

The company could very well move some executives, change supervision and responsibilities, and give potential successors experience in other areas of the company. Disney tried this a decade ago with Tom Staggs and Jay Rasulo, who swapped CFO and parks director roles (it didn’t work out then), but with several internal candidates, it is perhaps the only way to see who’s got the chops. to lead such a multi-faceted business and give them a chance to prove their mettle outside of their current comfort zone.

Promote an internal solo CEO: odds 8-1

Perhaps the postponement to 2026 is just an opportunity for internal candidates to prove themselves? After all, next year will be crucial for the company. Consider: Disney’s streaming entertainment business needs to prove it can be significantly profitable; its film sector must prove that this year’s recovery is real; ESPN set to launch ‘flagship’ streaming service; and Disney Parks must confirm that the downturn that began this year is short-lived, as the company begins investing $60 billion in the division. If one of the leaders excels in execution, it could propel them to the top.

Piezunka says Gorman and the board could also look closely at the criteria the next CEO must meet, which could give the advantage to one internal candidate or another.

“To me, that’s the interesting question here: What are the criteria actually? What does Disney’s next CEO actually need to be good at? » he said. “In this way, it becomes a very strategic question: Will the future be parks? Is The Question going to be streamed? Is the main advantage, so to speak, managing these relationships with the stars? I think they will really think about what does this person actually need to be able to do? »

Bringing in a stranger as CEO: 10-1 odds

Disney’s culture is so unique… can an outsider lead it successfully? Is there anyone capable of running a company like Disney who doesn’t come from within? At the D23 conference in Anaheim in August, Iger was treated like a celebrity in the living room, as die-hard Disney fans sought selfies with the CEO, highlighting the unique role the job entails.

Disney’s succession committee – led by Gorman – says it continues to review internal and external candidates, suggesting the possibility is still on the table. The only external candidate to leak so far is NBA Commissioner Adam Silver, who met with the board last year, but with a target date of 2026, candidates from other companies including contracts will be renewed in the future may become available. Would NBCUniversal’s Donna Langley, for example, be interested? What about Ted Sarandos? “It doesn’t even cross my mind,” he said at the WSJ tech conference Oct. 22. That’s not exactly a no.

The Netflix approach: Co-CEO: 25-1 odds

Netflix has two CEOs, why not Disney? Well, for starters, Netflix co-CEOs Sarandos and Greg Peters have very different areas of expertise and focus, and Sarandos says the “respect” they have for each other allows them to make decisions that need to be made at the CEO level. .

“It’s difficult for me to recommend the program to another company where I don’t really understand their business and, therefore, their company culture,” Sarandos said when asked about the co-appointment. CEO by Disney.

Still, for a company as multifaceted and diverse as Disney, the idea isn’t crazy. One CEO focused on the “creative engines” of the film and TV studio (looking at you, Dana), and another on park and experience operations (Hello, Josh), with areas like ESPN, the marketing, finance, etc. , divided between them, could make some sense… if the candidates are open to the idea of ​​getting a job worse than Iger’s. However, as Wharton’s Piezunka notes, a co-CEO strategy “would almost go against Disney’s business model, which is to always strive to integrate.”

Bob Iger extends his contract: odds 200-1

Iger’s shadow looms over the entire Disney estate drama. He took on the top job in a dramatic public process 20 years ago, despite not having experience in all aspects of the sector. But the Chapek decision is of great importance. Iger himself says he conducted an autopsy on what went wrong. Iger has extended his contract so many times over the years that it’s tempting to assume the board would quickly be ready to do so again. But Gorman’s rise suggests otherwise. “Does (Iger) get a second chance to do things right? I think it’s going to be an interesting question, to what extent is James Gorman going to say, “You know what? I own this process,” says Piezunka. The company has two years to successfully complete its succession, and despite Iger’s past expansions, there are many reasons to believe there won’t be another. Iger, for his part, says he is “definitely” considering stepping down once his current contract is up.

To hell, let’s sell or merge: odds 500-1

What if Gorman can’t find a suitable candidate to succeed Iger? Would a company that has always been a buyer consider… a sale? It’s not completely crazy. In his 2019 autobiography The journey of a lifetimeIger suggested that a deal with Apple was something he had thought about.

“I think if Steve (Jobs) were still alive, we would have combined our companies, or at least discussed the possibility very seriously,” Iger wrote. Of course, that was then, this is now. Apple and Disney are enemies (partners on Vision Pro, but Disney ended the practice of allowing users to subscribe to the Disney+ app on iOS devices). And there are so few buyers outside of big tech who could afford a company like Disney. As tempting as an exit might be, it also seems unlikely that they would exit the Marvel multiverse.

THRDisney Oddsmaker from: from probable to long shot

2-1 Disney finally releases another one Star Wars a film that works, thanks to The Mandalorian and Grogu.

5-1 Disney is partnering with an artificial intelligence company for post-production support as Wall Street favors companies that make deals with AI.

40-1 Disney unveils a new animated version of the MCU, seeing off the success of Sony’s Spider-Verse.

100-1 Disney is stopping releasing Disney+ subscriber numbers now that Netflix has led the way.

4,000-1 Disney is bringing back its Star Wars Galactic Starcruiser hotel and experience, this time 20% cheaper.

This story first appeared in the October 30 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. To receive the magazine, click here to subscribe.