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In current news, betting on the presidential election is all the rage. Can it keep the momentum going??

What’s on deck:

But first, do you want to bet?

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The big story

Presidential Bets

We’re less than a week away from Election Day, but one group can already claim victory: the betting markets.

Platforms allowing users to bet on the US presidential race have become surprise star of the election seasonwrites Matthew Fox of Business Insider. And it could potentially change how we view any potential outcome, not just future elections.

Kalshi, which attracted more than $100 million in election-related bets, is currently one of the most popular apps in Apple’s App Store. The Robinhood trading app also I got into the action Monday.

Kalshi legal victory in October over the CFTC offering election betting paved the way for this trend. But prediction markets are also booming abroad, where they have existed for years.

Polymarket, which is not available to U.S. citizens, saw $2 billion in bets this month, up from $533 million in September, according to The Block. Last year, the website averaged less than $20 million in monthly trading volume.

The rise of election betting markets has not been without controversy.

A “whale” trader betting on former President Donald Trump’s election victory has made headlines and sparked conspiracy theories. Polymarket confirmed that the user was a French national with trading experience betting on Trump “based on his personal views on the election.”

The biggest tests of the betting market could come after the election.

Proponents of predictive markets claim that they are more accurate than traditional surveysciting their ability to quickly adapt to breaking news and the fact that participants are invested in the outcome.

This election will be a good test of this theory, as there is a wide gap between the two approaches. Betting markets have Trump as the clear favorite, while mainstream polls indicate a close race.

If Trump wins in a landslide, it could strengthen the case for using betting markets as a key tool for election analysis. Nate Silver, one of the best-known polling analysts, is already an advisor to Polymarket.

But a presidential election only takes place once every four years. And the rest of the time?

If the last few years have taught us anything, this country loves to play. From crypto to meme stocks to sports, young men, in particular, are happy to bet on just about anything.

The economic model of prediction markets can build on this theme. On Kalshi, we can currently bet whether the Tesla robotaxi will be released before 2026 or whether the United States will ban TikTok before May.

Brief news

Headlines

3 things about the markets

1. Wall Street has high hopes for Meta. Thanks to the optimization of the company’s AI, analysts expect positive numbers according to Meta’s third quarter earnings report today. Bank of America said the stock is a top AI pick and that investors are watching AI growth opportunities.
2. Citadel is playing the long game with its shorts. Justin Lubell, head of global equities at the hedge fund, said the firm’s oldest group of stocks has made more money shorting stocks than through its long-term investments in recent years. Lubell said the strategy benefits from lack of competition on the short side.
3. Two of Wall Street’s top executives are speculating whether Trump will run for a second term. Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman, who supported Donald Trump, believes the former president would be “efficient and effective” during its second go-around. Fellow billionaire and Republican mega-donor Ken Griffin expects Trump to win next week.

3 things in technology

1. Can LinkedIn save us from recruiting hell? The platform wants to help job seekers apply smarter, not harder, by using AI to optimize the process. The goal is to focus on quality over quantity: LinkedIn hopes you’ll apply for fewer jobs, but the ones you apply for there will be better matches.
2. Amazon Web Services’ Graviton chips are thriving. In 2018, AWS launched Graviton, its own line of in-house central processing unit chips for data center servers. NOW, 90% of AWS’s largest server customers have become Graviton usersa company executive told BI.
3. Five Apple Intelligence features you can try on your iPhone right now. Some of the highly anticipated AI tools include a tool that helps summarize long messages, another that limits disruptions, and another that can edit hikes on your photos.

3 things in business

1. How a Trump or Harris presidency could impact how much you pay for housing. Affordable housing is one of America’s top economic concerns heading into the election. Here’s how each candidate’s proposed policies would affect housing supply, first-time home buyers, urban versus rural housing, and action against large landowners.
2. Alphabet beat its profit expectations for the third quarter. Google parent company reported better revenueearnings per share, its advertising business and Google Cloud revenue. The search giant relies entirely on AI — CEO Sundar Pichai said more than a quarter of the company’s new code is created by AI and then verified by employees.
3. Is X influenced by Elon Musk or its users? Musk is a self-proclaimed “super MAGA”. And X, the social media platform he owns, is more likely to display content from right-wing accounts, according to reports from the Washington Post and Wall Street Journal. But it’s unclear whether the platform shows users what they want to see or what Musk wants them to see.

What’s happening today

• Meta, Microsoft, Starbucks and other companies publish their results.
• The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases third quarter economic growth data.

The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, associate editor and presenter, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, editor, in London. Milan Sehmbi, comrade, in London.