Support for Democrats among black voters shows signs of erosionbut it is Latinos – now the country’s largest racial minority – who could prove decisive in the 2024 elections. Latinos are now the country’s largest ethnic minority, with their numbers increasing by 23% between 2010 and 2020 , and they now represent 62.1 million, or 18.7% of the total U.S. population. In California, Latinos make up nearly 40 percent of the population.

Unlike African Americans, 80 percent or more of whom are likely to vote Democratic, Latinos are much more evenly divided. The Democratic share of Latino voters, nearly 70 percent in 2016, is now only slightly above half. Latinos make up nearly 15% of all eligible voters, although they tend to be smaller in number than other groups, and by 2030 that share could nearly double. Latinos could prove decisive in many key battleground states, such as Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia.

In the past, progressives believed that as “people of color,” Latinos would be a safe constituency for Democrats. But it is likely that economic factors are more determining than racial considerations in voting patterns. Projections indicate that between 2020 and 2030, Latinos will represent 78 percent of net new workers in the United States.

Importantly, Latinos, particularly men, are particularly prominent in manufacturing, agriculture, transportation, and construction. People who work with their hands and small entrepreneurs tendency towards the Republican Party, while those who work as yoga instructors, teachers, environmental consultants and lawyers tend to be Democrats. Black voters, meanwhile, are overrepresented in government positions, including transit and nursing assistants, making up more than 18 percent of the federal government’s workforce, or about 50 percent more than their share in the population. Hispanics make up less than 10 percent of the federal workforce, or about half their share of the population.

Latinos also hold a significant position in the small business sector. They start more businesses per capita than any other racial or ethnic group. Most Latino small businesses are small and family-owned, representing the fastest-growing group of entrepreneurs in the United States. Over the past decade, the number of Latino business owners has increased by 34 percent, compared to just 1 percent for all business owners. Like people in blue-collar occupations, small business owners tend to gravitate toward the Republican Party, perhaps attracted by its commitment to fighting crime, cutting taxes and easing regulations.

In addition to these economic considerations, cultural factors also play a role. Overall, Latinos – and most immigrants – tend to be somewhat more religious and culturally conservative than white Americans, and much more than modern, culturally ultra-progressive Democrats. Just as only four percent identify with the term Latinx, an invention of academics and activists, most Latinos are less interested in fighting “white supremacy” than in improving their livelihoods and families.

Immigration is not really turning out to be the winning solution that Democrats have long believed it to be. There is remarkably little support, for example, for the Biden-Harris immigration policies among Latinoss. The vast majority of Americans, according to a June CBS News survey, and at least half of Hispanics, support deporting undocumented migrants. Most also favor the idea that citizens should demonstrate their citizenship status in order to vote, a position widely rejected by progressives.

Concerns about mass undocumented immigration reflect economic reality. The Congressional Budget Office warns that the recent “surge in immigration,” largely undocumented, could impact the wages of low-income workers, many of whom are Latino. Additionally, about half of Latinos, Pew notes, associate the current surge with increased crime in their communities. These feelings are likely to be particularly strong in places like South Texas, where once a Democratic majority areas shifted more toward the GOP.

But whatever their concerns, Latinos are also showing an optimism that is now deeply needed. Like most immigrants, they still believe and cherish the American dream. When asked what the most important factors are for success in the United States, 94 percent said “a strong work ethic and hard work.” In general, they want not less America, but more America, and tend to be more optimistic about the future than non-Latino whites. Latinos also represent the fastest-growing military population, making up about 16 percent of all active-duty military personnel. The number of Latino police officers increased by more than 80% between 1997 and 2020.

What Latinos want, for the most part, is not the end of the American dream but access to it. But that does not mean that they are turning inexorably and definitively to the right. Although they oppose some progressives, most are working class and many favor expanding the government’s role in stimulating growth. If they lean more Republican, it is more toward the Trumpian populist side than toward the free-market libertarianism espoused by many college-educated conservatives.

In the decades to come, especially if the current wave of migrants become legal citizens, Latinos seem likely to shape the America of the future and its politics. For the most part, this could be a very good thing.

Joel Kotkin is a Presidential Scholar in Urban Futures at Chapman University and a senior fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas.

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