SACRAMENTO — Just under half of California voters support Proposition 32, the measure to raise California’s minimum wage to $18 an hour, a warning sign about its fate in next week’s election, results show of a new poll published Friday.

Forty-seven percent of likely voters and those who have already voted supported the measure, according to a survey by the UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies, co-sponsored by the Times. Thirty-nine percent intend to vote “no” and 14% are undecided.

“It’s very close,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley poll. “It comes down to: Who’s going to vote? Turnout really matters here.

The measure would increase the state’s current $16 minimum wage by two dollars for all employees by 2026. Supporters of the proposal, including the Service Employees International Union, say that despite recent labor-specific minimum wage mandates In the industry, more than 2 million people earn less than $18. an hour and struggle to afford to live in one of the most expensive states in the country. But opponents, like the California Chamber of Commerce, warn it could drive down businesses or pass costs on to consumers.

The Berkeley poll also showed that a solid 60% majority of voters remain in favor of Proposition 36which would impose stricter penalties for retail theft and crimes involving fentanyl. Opposition to Proposition 33which would expand the power of local governments to enact rent control ordinances, is on the rise, with 45% of likely voters now intending to vote against it.

The minimum wage proposal could be a real headache, as polls show many voters remain unsure in the week leading up to Election Day. The measure comes after a new state law requires that fast food workers earn $20 an hour and healthcare workers earn at least $25 an hour, and cities like West Hollywood already demand more than $19 an hour.

California’s minimum wage is $16 and is adjusted for inflation – one of the highest rates in the country and more than twice that required by the federal government. But many Californians are still struggling with a skyrocketing cost of living. The current minimum wage is about $33,000 a year, and the average cost of living is about $53,082 a year, according to recent federal data.

Although the measure does not have majority support just days before Tuesday’s election, the percentage of supporters has increased by 10% since a similar poll last month.

The fate of the initiative will likely depend on who votes in the final hour, DiCamillo said. Democrats and young and black voters are among those supporting Proposition 32, along with residents of Los Angeles, San Francisco and other big cities. Republicans, however, oppose the measure by nearly six to one, and residents in rural areas like the Central Valley are least likely to support it.

Millionaire investor and anti-poverty activist Joe Sanberg spearheaded Proposition 32 and said he was “encouraged” by the latest poll results. He pointed at a new study by the Center on Wage and Employment Dynamics at UC Berkeley, which showed that higher wages in fast food led to modest price increases, just a few cents on the hamburger, and did not result in no job cuts.

“The opposition lied with a false narrative that inflation was the result of an increase in wages. The reality is that prices have gone up because of corporate price gouging,” Sanberg said. “I hope everyone will agree: we all want better wages, more jobs and stable prices. »

But some companies highlighted the increase in the minimum wage as the reason for the price increase, and some restaurateurs who closed their doors cited the cost of labor.

Chris Thurnberg, an economist who works for the California Restaurant Assn., one of the main opponents of the measure, said Californians are tired of “paying more for everything” and fear that an increase in the minimum wage would not affects their wallet.

“One of the big mistakes here is to think that this only appears in tiny parts of the economy. It shows up everywhere,” he said. “We’ve reached a point where you’re chasing your own tail. When does it stop?

The Berkeley poll is the last before the election and was conducted Oct. 22-29 in English and Spanish among more than 4,000 Californians considered likely to vote or who have already voted.