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    • Who wins in presidential polls Harris vs. Trump? What we know
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    Who wins in presidential polls Harris vs. Trump? What we know

    Umito Posted on

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    We are officially in the final straight line of the 2024 presidential election, as poll after poll shows an incredibly close race between the candidates of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

    Harris and Trump continue to make their final speeches to Americans as the clock ticks down to Election Day on November 5. Both have been busy during the election campaign, holding rallies and doing interviews. millions of people have already voted in advance. But the question remains: who will win the presidency?

    The presidential elections show tight margins and an extremely close race. Although all polls contain some margin of error, they help take the pulse of the nation on the candidates and provide insight into how the election might play out.

    Here’s how the candidates are doing at the start of November.

    Polls show Trump remains ahead in Ohio

    Poll results from November 1 show Trump still leading in Ohio, continuing his momentum from previous weeks. Trump, at 51.8%, is 8.1 percentage points ahead of Harris, who trails at 43.7%, according to data from FiveThirtyEight.

    The site provides an updated average for each candidate in the 2024 presidential elections, accounting for each poll’s recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls.

    Trump has a 94% probability of winning in the state, according to bets placed on Polymarket, a crypto trading platform.

    Who comes out on top in national polls?

    Polls and ratings are constantly changing. Here is where each candidate stood at 7:30 a.m. on November 1, 2024:

    • ABC 538 News Project shows Harris leading in national polls with 48% to Trump with 46.8%. In the past, Harris has led Trump by as many as four percentage points, although more recent polls show them much closer.
    • 270towin shows Harris leading national polls by 1.2% over Trump.
    • RealClearPolling shows Trump narrowly ahead of Harris with a gap of 0.3%.

    Harris vs. Trump 2024 Presidential Election Betting Odds

    As of 11 a.m. ET on Friday, Trump’s probability of victory fell to 59% or higher on the cryptocurrency trading platform. Polymarket as well as Sporting Index and Betfair Exchange, two leading betting platforms in the UK.

    On Kalshi, the largest regulated US exchange, Trump’s probability of victory fell from over 64% to 56% in 48 hours, THE UNITED STATES TODAY writing.

    How accurate have the polls or odds been in previous elections?

    The betting favorite has lost only twice since 1866, according to a nonprofit news organization. The conversation.

    THE polling history is more difficult, because different pollsters surveying different audiences can often achieve higher margins of error. According to Pew Researchconfidence in opinion polls has suffered given mistakes made in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. In both of those legislative elections, many polls underestimated the appeal of Republican Donald Trump.

    Allan Lichtman reveals his choice for the 2024 presidential election

    Presidential historian Allan Lichtman77, is a prominent history professor at American University and predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris would win the 2024 presidential election over former President Donald Trump. It claims to use a set of 13 “keys” to make its choices, which range from economic indicators to the charisma of the candidates.

    Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the past half-century, except the 2000 election, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.

    What day is Election Day 2024?

    Election day is Tuesday November 5.

    Remaining voting dates in Ohio

    • November 4: Absentee ballots returned by mail must be postmarked by today.
    • November 5: Election Day
    • November 9: Absentee ballots mailed on or before November 4 must arrive at election boards before that day to be counted.

    Umito
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