After strong skepticism in 2020, Republicans have adopted early voting by mail, making early showings more difficult. Both Trump and Harris found reason for hope in early data from mail-in voting.

“President Trump’s standing nationally and in every battleground state is SIGNIFICANTLY better today than it was four years ago,” wrote Tony Fabrizio, Trump’s chief pollster, in a press release published Thursday. note obtained by Policy. “While analysis of early and absentee voting results in each state is promising, we know that the majority of President Trump voters will vote on Election Day. Our continued efforts to engage our voters are therefore crucial.

The memo presented the latest RealClearPolitics average, showing Trump with leads in five of seven battleground states — enough to eke out a victory.

Harris’ senior advisor, David Plouffe, said CNN that the early vote totals match their calculations of what they need for victory.

“Our feeling is … with people making their decision last week, we’re doing pretty well,” he said. “And we like people who haven’t yet made up their minds about how they look from a data perspective and what they self-report in terms of who they’re likely to vote for. So far in early voting, we are on track in all seven states to reach the numbers we think we need, combined with the turnout on Election Day.

Elsewhere, analysts on both sides found even more promising news. The Democrats understood that Trump was late with seniors, a key Republican demographic, in early voting in Pennsylvania. In Nevada, the Republicans have made a decision clear advance on the Democrats.

Election analyst Nate Silver, speaking Saturday, viewed the ability of both sides to view victory in early voting as a sign of the futility of drawing meaningful conclusions.

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“The fact that the hackiest partisans on both sides invariably think the early voting numbers are great for them tells you everything you need to know about the usefulness of looking at the early voting numbers,” Silver said.

According to According to the University of Florida Election Lab, as of Friday morning, about 66 million people in the United States had already voted.