Big Ten football gets a makeover this weekend as new conference contender, No. 1 Oregon, hits the road against Michigan at the Big House in Week 10 college football on Saturday. Here’s what you need to watch out for in the game, with our updated prediction.

Michigan improved to 3-2 in the Big Ten after a win over Michigan State, but is still playing one of the most anemic offenses in the country and its playoff chances are pretty much toast.

Oregon, on the other hand, rose to No. 1 nationally after a one-point win over Ohio State and is still one of eight remaining undefeated teams in college football.

What can we expect as the Ducks and Wolverines face off in this new Big Ten clash?

Here’s what you need to watch out for as Oregon and Michigan meet in this Week 10 college football matchup, along with our updated prediction for the matchup.

1. Air it out. Michigan can’t, ranking 129th out of 134 FBS teams in pass production and 109th in scoring, and it’s up to Davis Warren to find some holes in an Oregon pass defense that’s among the best, allowing less than 57% completion, only 5.9. yards per attempt, and only 4 touchdowns through the air all season. These tacklers are fast, hit hard, and can close down your throwing lanes before you even know they’re open.

2. On the ground. Amid the Ducks’ other offensive success, running the ball remains something of a question mark, as they only rank 61st nationally with 167 yards per game, and that will be key to establishing the run against a Michigan’s defense that is 15th against the run and plays a physical style of football inside that could challenge Oregon’s interior protection.

3. Test Michigan deep. Oregon is 12th in the FBS in pass production, completing 76% of their passes for over 9 yards per play thanks to Dillon Gabriel’s partnership with some stealth receivers, and they could find some room against the pass defense. pass from the Wolverines.

Michigan’s secondary changed its strategy from week to week, sometimes shutting down deep routes in zone coverage, which resulted in other teams generating average pass gains. Other times it would bring more pressure close to the line, resulting in them being beaten deep.

Oregon has the variety and speed to exploit either approach: They can slice you with a battery of intermediate throws, and they have the jets to get past those tacklers on long shots.

Michigan is the only college football team with a Average scoring margin of 0.0 points this season.

Oregon is doing better, with an average 20.7 points better than its opponents in 2024.

Over the past three games, those averages have diverged as Oregon has played 21.7 points better than its opponents at that time, while Michigan was 5.7 points worse.

And those numbers separate again when it comes to location: Michigan is 4 points better that the opposition inside the country, while Oregon is 30.3 points better when I play on the road.

Michigan has an average 21.5 points per game this season, ranked 97th nationally, compared to an Oregon defense that allows 15.9 points per gamegood for 9th place on FBS.

And the Wolverines only come in 120th place with 303.1 total yards per game in offensive production, while the Ducks are 14th in total defense, allowing 308.7 yards per game on average.

Michigan ranks 81st in FBS with 0.348 points per game on average this season, while Oregon is 8th in the nation in yielding 0.245 points per game in 2024.

Michigan is also only 101st in the nation with 4.9 yards per play on average, compared to a Ducks defense that allows 4.8 yards per playin 19th place.

Playing on third down, the Wolverines converted 42 chances out of 103 this season, for a success rate of 40.78 percent.

Oregon only allowed 34 on 103 third down opportunities be converted by opponents, coming out at a 33.01 percent success rate.

Michigan is efficient in the red zone, converting 14 out of 17 opportunities in points for a 82.35 percent success ratebut those 17 chances are the third lowest nationally.

Oregon surrendered 18 of 22 chances in the red zone to be converted into points (81.82%).

Oregon is 16th in FBS this season on average 36.6 points per game while Michigan’s defense ranks 34th nationally in allowing 21.5 points per game.

And the Ducks are 9th this season on average 464.4 total yards per game compared to a Wolverines defense that is 25th in capitulation 329.5 yards per game on average.

Oregon has an average 0.553 points per game which is good for 12th place in FBS this season, while Michigan allows 0.316 points per game on average, 33rd.

On a per game basis, the Ducks enter this weekend ranked 6th nationally with 7 yards per play on average while the Wolverines allow 4.8 yards per play opponents, ranking 25th.

Oregon is No. 8 among 134 FBS teams in third-down offense, convert 47 out of 94 chances for one 50 percent success rate while Michigan is 91st in third down defense, allowing 48 chances out of 117 (41.03%).

When working from his scoring position, Oregon has transformed 29/34 chances in the red zone in points for a 85.29 percent success rate.

Of these scores, 24 were converted into touchdowns (70.59%).

Michigan allowed 24 of 31 chances in the red zone turning points defensively this season, giving up points on 77.42 percent of opportunities.

And 17 of those scores were touchdowns (54.84%).

Most analytical models also suggest a comfortable Ducks win on the road.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to select winners.

Oregon should win the game by majority 77.8 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Michigan as the presumptive winner in the final. 22.2 percent sims.

Oregon is a 14.5 point favorites against Michigan, according to updates posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 45.5 points for the game (Over -108, Under -112).

And it lists the currency ratings for Oregon at -720 and for Michigan at +490 to win outright.

The absence of Michigan’s vertical game will give the Ducks more opportunities to crowd the line of scrimmage with a rotation of capable tackles who can limit ground gains and prevent any breakaways behind the Wolverines’ backs.

And while Michigan has the personnel to do the same with Oregon and provide credible pressure from the front seven, the Ducks offensive line has recovered quite well from some early season struggles and should keep Gabriel clean in the pocket to find his outlets.

College football HQ chooses…

More… Oregon vs. Michigan Score Prediction by Expert Model

When: Saturday November 2
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | 12:30 p.m. (Pacific Time)
Television: CBS network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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