DEL MAR — Thoroughbred racing’s biggest prize is called Horse of the Year, but its winner in 2024 will almost certainly be whoever performs best in an 80-minute burst of competition Saturday in the Breeders’ Cup .

“That’s the way it should be,” coach Ken McPeek said this week in Del Mar.

The Horse of the Year contest between 3-year-old colt Fierceness and McPeek’s 3-year-old filly Thorpedo Anna frames the climatic afternoon of the 41st Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar Racecourse.

Fierceness, trained by Todd Pletcher, the No. 1 horse in the National Thoroughbred Racing Association’s weekly rankings, can take the clearest path to the Horse of the Year title by beating British superstar City of Troy and a dozen others as part of the breeders at 7 million dollars. ‘Cup Classic around 2:41 p.m.

If Fierceness doesn’t win, Thorpedo Anna, queen of the nation’s sophomore fillies division, would become the focus of Horse of the Year voters among journalists and racing executives if she lives up to the challenge. favoritism in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff. around 1:21 p.m.

But if neither Fierceness nor Thorpedo Anna wins, the campaign will become more complicated.

The Classic and Distaff are two of nine Breeders’ Cup races, the first at noon, on a 12-race card starting at 10:05 a.m. Weather handicappers are predicting a high temperature of 66 degrees and a 13 percent chance of rain at just the track. 400 meters from the Pacific Ocean.

Ferocity has the edge on Thorpedo Anna heading into the richest day of the US racing year, as he beat her by a thrilling head as the filly challenged the males in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga in August.

The challenge is more difficult for Fierceness than for Thorpedo Anna.

Ridden by John Velazquez, Fierceness is the 3-1 second choice on the morning line behind 5-2 City of Troy. Forever Young, the unlucky third-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby and one of three Japanese horses competing in the Classic, is 6-1.

City of Troy, perhaps the best horse in the world after winning the Epsom Derby and two other Group 1 races with jockey Ryan Moore on English turf in the spring and summer, would become a legend if he managed to win the Classic on his first try. on American dirt. It would be an achievement for the great Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien, who has won major races all over the world and has 18 other Breeders’ Cup victories but failed to win the Classic. This would be the story of the Breeders’ Cup for the rest of the racing world.

City of Troy could be the O’Brien horse to do it as he is a son of Justify, the winner of the 2018 American Triple Crown on dirt held in Kentucky at Ashford Stud, the American branch of Ireland’s Coolmore Stud. His dam, Together Forever, is a daughter of turf star Galileo.

“We thought, even before he raced at 2, that racing him in the Breeders’ Cup Classic was always a dream,” O’Brien said this week at Del Mar. “It was a dream to have (father) Justify originally.”

Horse watchers noted that Troy sweated a lot during practice at Del Mar earlier this week. This could be a sign of stress. O’Brien put a positive spin on it.

“Sweating never bothers me, and I’d always rather see them sweat than not, because usually if they’re sweating, they’re willing to do it, rather than coming here floating,” O’Brien said. “The Classic is going to be fierce, and he’s going to have to be on his game. If he’s relaxed around here, you’re wiped out. I prefer him to be a little nervous and a little ready.

City of Troy will have to deal with the faster pace of main course racing in the United States, and deal with the dirt that gets thrown in their face if they aren’t among the early leaders.

“There are so many things that have to go right for him. He has to jump (from the starting gate), he has to adapt to the pace, he has to adapt to the dirt,” O’Brien said. “There are so many variables that we just can’t control. We did our best, we think. While waiting for another stone to come, we should have looked underneath.

Even if City of Troy turned out to be the best horse on the planet, he would be unlikely to win North American Horse of the Year because he would have only raced here once.

There is a lot of skepticism about his chances in this race.

Mike Repole, breeder and owner of Fierceness, joked about City of Troy, “I think people think the race is on turf, that’s why they made him the favorite. I know it’s on earth. I just checked again.

McPeek said: “He has his work cut out for him. It’s a difficult transition, from a full career on grass to racing on dirt. I think we’ll find out if the influence in his pedigree is Justify or Galileo. If he did, it would certainly prove his greatness.

For McPeek, a Thorpedo Anna win under Brian Hernandez Jr. as the 4-5 morning line favorite in the Distaff should make it his horse of the year no matter what happens in the Classic. The filly won the Kentucky Oaks and four other Grade I or II stakes in six starts in 2024. McPeek’s victories in the Oaks and the next day’s Kentucky Derby with Mystik Dan were the first such by a trainer in the years 1950.

“If she wins (the Distaff), I don’t see how you can turn (her down),” McPeek said. “I would be disappointed if she won the Distaff and didn’t get the (Horse of the Year) one. But it’s up to others to decide.

“It’s exciting to even be discussed in this area. If you told me two years ago that I would go to the Fasig-Tipton yearling sale (in July 2022) and spend $40,000 on (and get) a potential horse of the year, I would say, “Yeah, it ‘is true. “

Repole, an irrepressible New Yorker, expressed a different view but a note of magnanimity when asked for his opinion on the Horse of the Year photo.

“Was it after Fierceness won the Classic or before?” Repole talked about his horse, who is 3 for 5 in 2024, with his only poor effort being a 15th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. “There are certain horses that, if they win here, it will be hard not to consider them Horse of the Year.