Harris leads by two points, 50%-48%, in a Marist group investigation this includes undecided voters who lean toward one candidate (margin of error of 3.4 points), and by one point, 48% to 47%, in a Washington Post survey (margin of error 3.1 points), both released Friday, with the Post poll depicting no movement in the race since its September survey.

Trump is up 50-49% both ways Fox News Poll of Pennsylvania’s likely voters Wednesday — well within the three-point margin of error — while the candidates are tied at 48 percent if respondents could choose third-party candidates (about 3 percent of voters chose another candidate).

Trump also has a 47-46% lead in a Quinnipiac poll of likely voters released Wednesday (margin of error 2.1 points and respondents could choose other candidates), although Harris holds a slight 49-48% advantage in a cooperative election study. survey released this week (3,685 respondents, surveyed as part of a national university-led study by YouGov).

Meanwhile, the race is dead even at 48%-48% in a CNN/SSRS Poll of likely voters on Wednesday – while only 8% say they are undecided or might change their mind – and CBS/YouGov found a similar 49-49% tie in a likely poll released Tuesday.

Turnout could play a role: Trump had a 47-46% lead Monmouth poll of all registered voters released Wednesday, but the race is tied at 48%-48% among those surveyed extremely motivated to vote, and Harris leads between 48% and 47% among those who voted most or in all general elections since 2014 (margin of error 3.8 points).

Last week, Harris led Trump 50 to 48.2 percent among likely voters in a Bloomberg/Morning poll. investigation (margin of error 3), and Harris was ahead 49% to 47% in a school Washington Post/Schar survey (margin of error 4.6), while Trump was up 49-48% in a Emerson Survey (margin of error 3.4).

Earlier this month, Harris led Trump by three points, 50% to 47%, in a pair of New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College reports. polls published on October 12, while Trump was up 47-46% between September 28 and October 28. 8The Wall Street Journal survey of registered voters who said they would “definitely” or “probably” vote for either candidate.

The polling averages are close to tied, with a slight edge over Trump: Trump leads by 0.3 points in Pennsylvania in the FiveThirtyEight poll. average.

Pennsylvania has more electoral votes, 19, than any other battleground, and Pennsylvanians regularly pick winners, voting for 10 of the last 12 White House winners — the candidate who won Pennsylvania also won Michigan and Wisconsin (the three states combined are known as the “blue wall”) in the last eight elections.

Pennsylvania is far more likely to swing the election than any other battleground state, according to statistician Nate Silver. election forecast modelwhich also revealed that both candidates have a greater than 85% chance of winning the election if they get Pennsylvania.

Trump became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since the 1980s in the 2016 election, and Biden, a native of Scranton, Pennsylvania, bucked the trend in 2020, with the state pushing him over the 270-vote threshold needed to win. win the elections. College

Pennsylvania is also important to Trump personally, as he was shot there while speaking at a rally near Butler on July 14.

The state has a large share of white, working-class voters, with nearly 75% of the population identifying as non-Hispanic white — a demographic with which Trump generally performs well, although Harris has made some inroads with white voters compared to Biden’s 2020 performance, trailing Trump by just three points nationally, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist Pollafter Trump won demographically by 12 points in 2020.