A disturbance in the Caribbean Sea, designated Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center, likely has a chance of strengthening into at least a tropical depression over the next few days of dew, and could potentially become a tropical storm later.

Naming it “Investment,” which simply means an area of ​​interest, allows the National Hurricane Center and meteorologists to run computer models to potentially see where the system might go and how strong, if it eventually forms.

By Saturday, the disturbances produced disorganized showers and thunderstorms. It is moving northwest over the central and western Caribbean Sea.

Could it become Tropical Storm Rafael?

According to FOX 35’s Brooks Garner, the system has a high chance of becoming Tropical Storm Rafael. If you expected Patty to be the name of the next storm, a disturbance in the Eastern Atlantic took that name Saturday morning – Subtropical Patty.

It is still too early to predict exactly where this potential system will go, but it is a system that will continue to be monitored and tracked.

Most computer models are confident that the system will eventually move near Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and through Cuba. However, once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico near Florida Key, confidence weakens.

Meteorologist Brooks Garner said Tropical Storm Rafael will likely form over Cuba and could potentially reach hurricane strength, but again, it’s too early to know for sure.

Most models have the system remaining west of the Florida coast. Again, it’s too early to be sure.

What impacts might we see in Orlando?

The center of the system will likely remain 200 miles west of Florida in the Gulf of Mexico. However, it will feel like a summer midweek with high humidity, strong winds and scattered tropical showers.

Between 2 and 5 inches of rain are possible, which could lead to puddles accumulating in already saturated yards. There is also a risk of an isolated tornado.

Wind gusts next week could reach 30 to 45 mph, but likely on the low end.

What we don’t know

The exact trace of this system is uncertain. We will monitor him over the next few days.

There is also a second disturbance to the east of this that could move toward the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC said the secondary system would likely be absorbed into the larger system discussed above, although this is still unknown.

No computer models currently predict a hurricane heading toward Florida, but we will continue to monitor. Even if it forms off the west coast, we could still feel some impacts.

Ocean water temperatures and atmospheric conditions do not support a hurricane once the system passes Cuba and the Florida Keys, which is typical for November, Garner said.