Political Betting Tips: US Elections

3pts Trump will win between 45 and 47.99% of the vote at 13/8 (Sky Bet)

3pts Harris to win 80 million votes or more as of 11/8 (Sky Bet)

Election winner by 2 points will lose the popular vote at 13/8 (Star Sports, Betfair Sportsbook)

Sky Bet Odds | Power of paddy | Betfair Exchange

Question: Which event generates more betting revenue than another?

The World Cup final? The Super Bowl? The biggest boxing fights? In fact, the last two US presidential elections broke the all-time record and are on track to do so again. Here’s what you need to know.

VOTES DO NOT ALWAYS WIN PRIZES

Winning the most votes (popular vote) does not necessarily win the election. Ask Hillary Clinton and Al Gore. Rather, it is what we call the electoral college that determines it. Each state awards a set number of votes to the winner of the popular vote in that state, based on its population. California gets 54, Texas 40. South Dakota 3. Nebraska and Maine split their votes between congressional district winners — a nuance that could prove decisive. In total there are 538 electoral college votes (ECVs), so the winning target is 270.

It is almost certain that the outcome will depend on what happens in seven very marginal states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Look at this interactive map for calculating mathematics and various permutations.

In 2020, Joe Biden won six of seven, not including North Carolina. In 2016, Donald Trump won every award in Nevada. If Kamala Harris held on to Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – plus Nebraska’s lone 2nd District ECV – she would almost certainly hit the 270 mark. However, lose Pennsylvania and winning becomes extremely unlikely. If she loses Michigan, she’ll have to win what appears to be a tougher goal in North Carolina or Georgia.

I use the words “almost certainly” because in theory, a state outside of these seven could go against expectations. Minnesota for Donald Trump, or Texas for Harris. However, whatever the scenario, it is extremely likely that they would have dominated key states anyway.

STATE OF PLACE

Writing this in 11 days, the race is really too close to call. This is the only time I’ve said this about the US election this late in the process. Trump has recently gotten a head start in betting, but the evidence supporting the best odds of 4/6 is spotty. Polling models give it about a 53% chance. I agree with that, given what we are seeing in key states, but there is a high degree of uncertainty. The margins are tiny, well within the margin of error, and the outcome may ultimately be determined by which of the candidate’s supporters are most motivated to vote.

THE CASE FOR Trump

The case for Trump’s return to the presidency begins with how he lost it. All poll results pointed to a heavy defeat, but Trump far exceeded expectations. Although he lost more than seven million votes in his 2016 victory, he actually received more than 11 million votes, and the margins in these key states were very tight.

He lost because, on the first day of his presidency, a vast anti-Trump coalition was formed, in record numbers. No president has ever experienced such high disapproval ratings, and polls throughout his term – whether for elections, approvals or regarding his first impeachment – have consistently shown more than 50% in the anti- Trump. Biden brought this coalition together by a record 81 million votes, without any significant third-party vote split (which cost Clinton in 2016).

It’s one thing to form a coalition against an unpopular incumbent president. It’s another to do it when they are a challenger, facing an incumbent with a mixed record at best. When it looked like Biden would be the Democratic nominee, Trump appeared to be a very strong favorite. When he withdrew and his vice president became the candidate, the Democrats gained an advantage, but Harris must still answer for their joint record in the White House, particularly on economic matters.

In trying to rebuild this coalition, Harris is threatened by small third parties. Michigan, in particular, appears vulnerable, due to anger among a large, generally Democratic, Arab-American population over the administration’s support for Israel during the Gaza conflict. Israel critics Jill Stein and Cornel West could tip the state to Trump’s side, simply by taking 2 percent away from the Democrat. Early voting signals in Nevada are also very concerning for Harris.

Although Trump’s approval ratings remain consistently low, his poll numbers are much better than before the previous two elections. Both times, late decision-makers turned to him. If he loses the popular vote by less than 2% (his current average deficit is 1.7%), he will likely win the electoral college. There is a popular theory that he will always outperform in the polls because some supporters are unwilling to engage. with pollsters or publicly acknowledge their preference. More than any other reason, this explains why betting markets rate its odds higher than poll models.

THE CASE FOR HARRIS

Polling companies tend to adjust samples when they throw a flawed election, so the opposite trend may actually be true. In the 2022 midterm elections, the industry vastly overestimated Republicans, especially candidates with Trump’s MAGA image. Republican-affiliated pollsters have overwhelmed and distorted polling averages and appear to be doing so again.

These 2022 midterm elections have reinforced the idea that MAGA is ultimately a losing strategy, one that more than half the country opposes and which is sure to energize opponents. This seems even more true since the Dobbs Amendment, which overturned decades of liberal abortion laws and led to extreme restrictions. Since then, women’s participation has exploded, particularly during referendums on the subject.

Trump has always been toxic to a majority of women and now a liberal woman is doing even better among them against him. Women generally make up 52% ​​of the electorate, and this figure could reach 54% according to some estimates. If that’s the case, and some early voting evidence supports that projection, Trump is done.

Sure, the swing states are very tight, but recent data suggests they are overwhelmingly Democratic. Particularly the “Blue Wall” which would likely propel Harris to the White House. Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania all have Democratic governors and are leading in Senate elections in all three states.

Likewise, Arizona and Nevada, both of which are holding simultaneous referendums on abortion. Trump’s two previous elections in the seven key states saw a very strong correlation between the performances of Senate and presidential candidates from the same party. Popular Senate candidates may well attract the final decision-makers to the Harris column.

His approvals are far higher than Trump’s. She is heavily courting the sizable minority of Republicans who dislike Trump – illustrated by Nikki Haley’s strong showing in the primary against him, even after she conceded, a steady stream of endorsements from senior Republicans and warnings from former Trump officials who refuse to endorse him.

The election will most likely be decided by this cohort, by turnout, and by late decision-makers. The Democrats have a superior ground game and in 2022 the final decision-makers have turned to them.

BEST BETS

A great strategy for political betting, which applies to all elections and all countries, is to find options that could succeed even if the candidate loses.

First, Trump’s popular vote outcome seems predictable. His base is incredibly loyal, but his divisive style makes it extremely difficult to convert opponents. His approval rating is remarkably consistent for this reason. In 2016, he won 46.1% of the PV then 46.8% in 2020. His current average in the polls is 46.4%, which will probably increase a little once the undecided have chosen. Take 13/8, he gets between 45 and 47.99% of the votes.

CLICK HERE to support Trump and win 45-47.99% of the vote with Sky Bet

Trump is a turnout machine, guaranteed to energize both sides. I expect it to be at least very close to 2020’s 67% and perhaps higher given the nature of a close and hard-fought election, characterized by both sides as the most important of all time. So 11/8 that Harris would get 80 million votes — compared to Biden’s 81.3 million — seems a much better bet than backing her for president with similar odds. I don’t see her winning with less and she could land this and still lose by a landslide.

CLICK HERE to support Harris and win 80 million votes or more with Sky Bet

Given that Trump is the favorite, the 13/8 odds that the winner of the election would lose the popular vote seems way too high. Polling models and betting signals project this result onto today’s numbers.

The crucial point is that only one Republican has won the popular vote since the 1980s: George W. Bush in 2004, in a context very different from that of the ultra-polarized Trump era. Harris is already at 50% in several credible national polls, before the final decision-makers choose. I rate her 1/2 popular vote victory as a very solid bet, but she can certainly lose the electoral college.

CLICK HERE to bet on the US elections with Sky Bet

Published at 3:20 p.m. BST on 25/10/24

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