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Harris versus Trump: how the ‘fate of the world’ is linked to the US elections

Umito November 3, 2024

When American voters go to the polls next week, they will not only hold the fate of their nation, but arguably the world, in their hands.

The presidential election comes during a globally tumultuous time, with conflict raging in the Middle East, war in Ukraine and China’s growing power challenging U.S. influence in the Asia-Pacific region. .

How these geopolitical questions continue to play out could be influenced by whether Or is elected the next president of the United States.

“Whether we like it or not, the world really does revolve around what happens in the United States,” Emma Shortis, senior fellow in international and security affairs at the public policy think tank, told SBS News The Australia Institute.

“This is by far the largest economy, the largest military in the world, and a lot of the fate of the world, I think, is tied up in what happens in the United States.”

Concerns about “democratic instability”

The United States has long considered itself a beacon of democracy and, since the end of the Cold War in 1991, the last remaining superpower.

But Shortis said that over the past decade, concerns about the “enormous influence” the United States wields over the rest of the world have grown.

“Historically, she was seen as a defender of what is often described as the ‘rules-based international order,’ but particularly when sheand elsewhere, I think there have been real concerns raised about the United States’ commitment to this… and to international law,” she said.

Combined with “democratic instability” in the United States, many of that country’s allies are rightly concerned about what the future might hold, Shortis said.

“That’s why we’re all watching this so closely and why I think there are real concerns about what’s happening, particularly in the aftermath of the election, based on how close they are and how big the ‘instability.”

Ian Parmeter, a researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Australian National University, agrees that the outcome of this election and the way it is handled could pose a threat to democracy around the world.

“Trump’s refusal to accept the outcome of the 2020 election was clearly not a good idea for democracy. and invaded the Capitol building,” he told SBS News.

“If Trump contests the result again, it will be a bad image of democracy, and countries that are at this stage only quasi-democracies will certainly not be encouraged to pursue democracy if they see the world’s first democracy behave in this way.

US policy on the Hamas-Israel war

The United States and Israel have been close allies since the founding of the Jewish state in 1948.

Following last year, in which more than 1,200 people were killed and around 250 hostages taken, according to the Israeli government, the Biden administration has repeatedly reaffirmed its support for .

The United States has spent at least $17.9 billion ($27 billion) on military aid to Israel since October 7, according to Brown University. .

Israel’s subsequent bombardment of Gaza killed nearly 43,000 people, according to Gaza’s health ministry. The attacks also damaged or destroyed most buildings in the coastal enclave and displaced around 90 percent of its population.

Early in Harris’ presidential campaign, there was hope among some progressives and “moderate American support for Israel,” Shortis said.

“But as her candidacy progresses, it becomes clear that she is holding the line with the Biden administration, has expressed strong support for Israel, and has continued to characterize Iran as l “enemy number one of the United States,” she said.

Whether that position changes after the election will likely depend on the pressure Harris faces from progressive Democrats, as well as the makeup of her cabinet, Shortis said.

“Contrary to progressive pressure coming from the grassroots, there have also been suggestions that Harris would appoint a Republican to her cabinet and might even have a Republican as secretary of state,” she said.

Parmeter said Donald Trump would be “much more pro-Israel.”

“Trump will probably give much more freedom to do what he needs to do to win the war,” he said.

“I think Trump would accept the need for Israel to maintain troops in Gaza; Netanyahu has made it clear he will insist on this.”

Parmeter said Trump’s support would likely extend to Israel’s goals in Lebanon, where long-standing hostilities with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah with Iran, earlier this month.

“But by the same token, I think Trump will probably want the war to end as soon as possible,” he said.

Shortis said it was difficult to say “with certainty” what Trump’s position on the Middle East would be, noting that his policy positions “often depended on the last person he spoke to.”

“What exactly a Trump administration could do, where power could fall in this administration between the positions of people like the vice president and others who are opposed to American support for the war, wherever that may be, I think it’s not clear yet,” she said. .

US policy towards Ukraine

As for Ukraine, “a lot depends on these elections,” Parmeter said.

The Biden administration has provided Ukraine with more than $64.1 billion in military aid since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Shortis and Parmeter said that as president, Harris would try to maintain her support for Ukraine as Biden has — but her success ultimately depends on the number of Democrats in Congress. The 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 in the Senate will be up for election on November 5.

“Much funding and support for Ukraine has been blocked in Congress by far-right Republicans who oppose U.S. support for Ukraine, which is driven by ideological alignment with Putin’s Russia” , Shortis said.

Parmeter noted that during Russia was able to make “significant advances” in eastern Ukraine.

“If the House and Senate end up in Republican hands, the Harris administration could have a much harder time maintaining this policy,” he said.

“They should certainly find a way to work with the Republican-controlled Congress.”

Trump, meanwhile, has made it “very clear” that as president he would not continue U.S. support for Ukraine, Shortis said.

He also claimed that he would be able to .

Parmeter said that might be the case – but only in a way that would be “very bad news” for Ukraine.

“I think unfortunately it might be possible for him (Trump) to end this pretty well on day one by simply saying there will be no more American funding for the Ukrainian war effort,” he said. he declared.

“I think that even if Trump can’t end the war on day one, he will probably work to end it fairly quickly after he takes office.”

American policy towards China

The United States’ treatment of China is one of the “very few” areas of foreign policy with bipartisan agreement, Shortis said.

In 2018, during Trump’s first presidency, he imposed 25% tariffs on a series of Chinese imports to the United States, triggering .

Shortis said the use of “pretty aggressive economic tactics” to try to curb China’s growing influence has continued under Biden, pointing to tariffs his administration has imposed on imports such as electric vehicles .

“We’ve also seen, I think, the Biden administration using the Pacific as a playground, really, for great power competition, and viewing much of the Pacific as sort of pawns in a security game with the China,” she said.

Shortis said that while this would likely continue if Harris was elected, the United States could “rethink and reshape” its approach in the region.

“I think there would be more opportunity for the Pacific to advocate for a change in position and to advocate for greater focus – as the Biden administration initially did – on commitments to climate action and nuclear non-proliferation,” she said. said.

Under Trump, Parmeter said U.S. tariffs on imported goods would likely become even “more extreme” — and not just for China.

“He said he would consider 10 percent tariffs on all countries – and that would worry Australia – but also 60 percent tariffs to start on all Chinese goods, then consider other tariff possibilities beyond that,” he said.

“This could all go to the World Trade Organization and there may well be international legal action against it, but how relations with China develop will be very important.”

Shortis suggested that the “belligerent promises” Trump made about China might not even come to fruition.

“Trump is unpredictable in that much of his rhetoric on trade is particularly aggressive and will be incredibly destabilizing not only for the US economy, but also for the global economy as a whole – and so this is very concerning ” she said.

“But we also know, of course, that and he could see a political opportunity in striking a “deal” with China. »

Would any agreement extend to U.S. support? is also in the air.

Parmeter noted that the relationship with China would be “extremely important over the next four years…for both sides of American politics.”

Additional reporting by Tanya Dendrinos

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