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    • How do past poll results in Iowa compare to election results in Iowa?
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    How do past poll results in Iowa compare to election results in Iowa?

    Umito Posted on

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    Voter preference polls are not intended to predict victories. These are snapshots in time that help the media and general public better understand what voters are likely thinking and what issues are important to them at that moment.

    But many look to polls conducted shortly before an election to get a better idea of ​​how Election Day might play out.

    In Iowa, the Des Moines Register was leading the Iowa poll since 1943when pollsters first fanned out across the state to interview Iowans at their doorsteps. Since 1987, J. Ann Selzer has led the Iowa Poll, first as a Register member and then on a contract basis since 1997 with her firm Selzer & Co.

    2024 Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris overtakes Donald Trump to take the lead as Election Day approaches. Here’s how

    When an Iowa poll is released, readers often wonder how close previous polls came to the eventual election results. Here’s a look at Iowa polls before U.S. presidential elections over the past 20 years.

    2020: Final Iowa poll shows Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden

    THE 2020 Des Moines Register/Mediacom Final Survey took place October 26-29, 2020, just days before the November 3, 2020 election. Results showed then-President Donald Trump leading in the state: 48% to 41%. for Joe Biden.

    The 7-point lead was a change from September 2020 Iowa Poll this showed that the race in the state was tied.

    This closely matched the final results when Trump won Iowa by 8 points (53% to 45%).

    2016: Final Iowa Poll Shows Donald Trump Beating Hillary Clinton

    After voting for President Barack Obama in back-to-back elections, Iowa saw numerous election campaigns from Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016.

    THE Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Final Poll showed Trump with a 7-point lead over Clinton (46% versus 39%). The survey was conducted from November 1 to 4, 2016, before the November 8, 2016 elections.

    It took until 1:30 a.m. the next day for the Associated Press to publish calls the race for Trump. Trump finished with 9.4 points ahead of Clinton (51.1% against 41.7%).

    More: How is the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll going? We answer your main questions.

    2012: Final Iowa poll puts Barack Obama ahead of Mitt Romney

    President Barack Obama faced challenger Mitt Romney in 2012.

    The final Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll gave Obama a 5-point lead over Romney (47% to 42%).

    On election night, Obama carried the state by 6 points (52% to 46%).

    2008: Barack Obama has a commanding lead over John McCain in the final Iowa poll

    Iowa helped launch Barack Obama as a presidential candidate when he won the 2008 Iowa caucuses.

    As Election Day approached, the final polls in Iowa seemed to indicate that Obama would easily win the state over challenger John McCain. The poll gave him a 17-point lead (54% against 37%).

    When the election closed, Obama won the state by a narrower margin: 10 points. He got 54% of the vote, but McCain got 44%.

    2004: John Kerry beats President George W. Bush

    Iowa was considered a battleground state in 2004 after President George W. Bush faced low job approval ratings. Iowa did not vote for Bush in 2000, but chose former Vice President Al Gore.

    The final Iowa poll gives US Senator John Kerry, the Democratic challenger, a 5-point lead (48% to 43%).

    On election night, Bush won a narrow victory, receiving 49.9% of the vote, to Kerry’s 49.2%. Bush was the first Republican to win the state since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

    Brian Smith is the Register’s audience growth strategist. Contact him at [email protected] or 515-284-8214.

    Umito
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