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    • Here’s Who’s Winning in the Key Swing State
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    Here’s Who’s Winning in the Key Swing State

    Umito Posted on

    Top line

    Vice President Kamala Harris is vying to become only the second Democratic presidential candidate to win North Carolina in more than 40 years, as most polls show her in a close contest with former President Donald Trump – Trump holding a slight advantage in three newly released polls. this week and Harris ahead in two others.

    Key facts

    Harris leads 48 to 46% in a New York Times/Siena investigation Sunday (margin of error of 3.5 points), even though Trump is ahead 49 to 47% in a Morning consultation poll also released Sunday, while Harris is up 48-47 percent among likely voters in a CNN/SSRS poll. survey released Thursday (margin of error 4.5 points).

    Trump has a 49% to 47% advantage over Harris among likely voters – and 4% chose another candidate – in one poll. Fox News Poll published Wednesday, although its lead is reduced to one point (50% -49%) in a two-way confrontation, within the margin of error of three points.

    Trump is also ahead among likely voters in North Carolina, between 50% and 48%, according to a Cooperative Election Study. survey Last week, a large national survey supported by universities and conducted by YouGov (2,308 respondents).

    Trump leads likely voters by the same margins, 50% to 48%, in both Marist countries. survey and an Emerson survey earlier this month, and is up from 49.6% to 48.5% according to Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey published on October 23, all within the margins of error of the surveys (3.1 points for Emerson, 3.6 for Marist and 4 points for Bloomberg).

    The Cook Political Report moved North Carolina from “lean Republican” to “toss-up” in late August, writing that the state “seems more competitive than ever” since Harris entered the race, while Cook’s latest survey released earlier this month shows Harris and Trump tied. , after Harris led by a point here in August.

    Surprising fact

    If Harris wins the state, she has a nearly 90 percent chance of winning the election, according to political analyst Nate Silver. Voter Power Indexwhich found that Trump would have a greater than 80% chance of winning the electoral college if he won North Carolina.

    Key context

    North Carolina has voted for only one Democratic presidential candidate since 1980: Barack Obama in 2008. North Carolina’s leftward shift has largely been attributed to an increase in the population of likely voters who generally support Democrats, including the most educated, especially from a rate of 5.6%. increase since 2020 near the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill “research triangle” area, according to the Brookings Institution. This region is home to three major research universities – Duke University, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the University of North Carolina – which have also spawned related industries in high technology and life sciences, and made it the tenth fastest growing region in the country. , according to Brookings. And the overall percentage of North Carolinians with a bachelor’s degree — a Democratic-leaning demographic — has also increased by 1.4 million since 1990, according to one study. study by the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

    To watch

    Could the scandals surrounding GOP gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson hurt Trump’s chances in North Carolina? Trump supported Robinson in front of CNN report revealing a series of racist and derogatory comments he allegedly made on a pornographic website chat room before he entered politics, including calling himself a “black NAZI.” Polls taken after the Sept. 19 report show Democratic candidate Josh Stein widening his lead over Robinson, up to 19 points in a recent poll. Emerson College Investigation. A CNN/SSRS poll released September 27 also found that Robinson was behind Stein by 17 points and tied between Trump and Harris, suggesting that Robinson’s scandals have not affected Trump’s standing. Historically, the disappearance of unsuccessful candidates has rarely led to the decline of the affiliated party’s presidential candidate, CNN Ratings.

    Large number

    16. This is the number of electoral college votes North Carolina has, having received one vote after the 2020 census. The state has the eighth-most electoral votes in the country, tied with Georgia .

    Contra

    Despite the electorate’s increasingly Democratic leanings, Republicans hold large majorities in both houses of the Legislature, giving them the power to override Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s vetoes.

    Further reading

    Swing State Polls for 2024 Elections: Harris Leads or Ties Trump in Every Battleground State, Latest Survey Shows (Forbes)

    Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads by 6 Points in Latest Poll of Likely Voters (Forbes)

    Umito
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