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American politics: who will replace Mitch McConnell at the head of the Republican Party in the Senate? This remains deeply uncertain
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American politics: who will replace Mitch McConnell at the head of the Republican Party in the Senate? This remains deeply uncertain

WASHINGTON– Senate Republicans vying to replace longtime leader Mitch McConnell have traveled the country campaigning and raising money for their colleagues, making their final arguments before a consequential vote the week after the presidential election. But their arguments are mostly happening behind closed doors, and most Republican senators won’t yet say which lawmaker they support.

John Thune of South Dakota, McConnell’s current No. 2, and John Cornyn of Texas, who held the position before Thune, are leading the Nov. 13 secret ballot to replace McConnell. The Kentucky senator will step down from his post in January after nearly two decades as party leader. The winner could lead the party for years to come and possibly become the next Senate majority leader if Republicans pick up enough seats in Tuesday’s elections.

The outcome is, for the moment, uncertain.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., heads to the chamber as Congress prepares for a vote on an interim spending bill aimed at averting a government shutdown on Sept. 25, 2024.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., heads to the chamber as Congress prepares for a vote on an interim spending bill aimed at averting a government shutdown on Sept. 25, 2024.

Photo AP/J. Scott Applewhite

Only a few Republican senators have publicly supported a candidate. Many say they are still undecided. The third senator in the running, Florida Senator Rick Scott, who is running for re-election himself, could play the role of spoilsport. Another candidate could still intervene.

In many ways, “the two Johns” are remarkably similar, making the choice difficult for their colleagues. Both are well-liked and, like McConnell, lean toward the more traditional wing of the Republican Party. But both also suggested they would try to emerge from the McConnell era with a more open approach.

“I’m trying to find differentiation because they’re both great guys,” said Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., who has worked closely with both of them.

Both men are also trying to distinguish themselves from McConnell by making clear they support Donald Trump in this year’s presidential election. Like McConnell, they have both sparred with Trump in the past, most notably after the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol. But Thune and Cornyn have spoken to Trump frequently in recent months, attending campaign events and visiting his Florida home.

Trump’s victory and his support for one of the candidates could become a determining factor.

“I don’t know what he’ll do,” Cornyn said of Trump in September. “But this is obviously an election between senators, and I think that’s where the voters are.”

Senator John Cornyn, Republican of Texas, speaks to the media, October 18, 2023, on Capitol Hill in Washington.

Senator John Cornyn, Republican of Texas, speaks to the media, October 18, 2023, on Capitol Hill in Washington.

AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough, file

Some of the former president’s staunchest allies in the Senate are urging him to stay above the fray. Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullin, who supports Thune, says he tried to talk Trump out of his support. Trump understands “the need to work with the next leader,” Mullin said.

Tillis suggested that a Trump endorsement could backfire.

“You have to pay attention to the psychology of the Senate,” Tillis said. “We know each other very well and we spend hours and hours together. It’s a pretty small club.”

Cornyn and Thune nevertheless remain close to Trump. Cornyn met with Trump during a trip to Texas in October and attended a rally in Nevada. Thune was present at an event in August with Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance.

Thune, who said after the Jan. 6 attack that Trump’s efforts to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power were “inexcusable,” told The Associated Press this summer that he viewed their potential relationship as a professional one. If they both win their elections, Thune said, “we have a job to do.”

Scott, meanwhile, is a longtime friend of Trump and has positioned himself as a strong ally. Scott traveled to New York to support Trump during Trump’s secret trial. Trump could support Scott in the race, potentially winning more votes for the Florida senator or giving him leverage to influence the race.

Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla. speaks at a public meeting, September 3, 2024, in Braselton, Georgia.

Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla. speaks at a public meeting, September 3, 2024, in Braselton, Georgia.

AP Photo/Mike Stewart, file

In addition to private meetings, Thune and Cornyn flew across the country to raise money and campaign for their fellow senators.

Thune has made more than two dozen campaign stops for Republican Senate candidates, and his aides say he has raised more than $31 million for Senate races this campaign cycle, including a transfer of $4 million toward the Republican Senate campaign operation.

Cornyn also canvassed candidates and invested money in Texas races. His aides point to his long history of fundraising for Republicans — more than $400 million during his 22 years in the Senate, according to his office.

Politically, the two men are similar, generally voting in line with the conference but sometimes working with Democrats. Cornyn is a longtime member of the Senate Judiciary Committee who played a leading role in bipartisan gun legislation two years ago. Thune worked across the aisle as former chairman of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee.

It’s unclear whether either could win support from the growing minority of Republican senators who have battled McConnell in recent years as he defended aid to Ukraine and criticized Trump. Many in this group voted for Scott when he challenged McConnell after the 2022 election.

In a possible overture to this group, Cornyn called for a conference vote on instituting term limits for the Republican leader. “I believe the Senate needs more engagement from my colleagues, and that includes allowing any member to serve in leadership roles,” Cornyn posted on X in March.

Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, a member of the most conservative faction, said he hasn’t made any commitments in the race, but he wants to know how they would advance legislation and work with Trump if he were president. “I think some of this will become more important after the election, when we know what we’re dealing with and what our caucus is going to be,” Hawley said.

Many members of that group, including Scott and Utah Sen. Mike Lee, have pushed to take power away from leaders and make individual senators accountable. Lee has issued a series of candidate demands, but neither Cornyn nor Thune have so far expressed interest in negotiations.

South Dakota Sen. John Thune speaks in support of Ohio Republican U.S. Senate candidate Bernie Moreno (not pictured) at a bus stop for the Ohio Senate race in Columbus.

South Dakota Sen. John Thune speaks in support of Ohio Republican U.S. Senate candidate Bernie Moreno (not pictured) at a bus stop for the Ohio Senate race in Columbus.

AP Photo/Joe Maiorana

But both said they heard the complaints.

Thune indicated in the AP interview that he was open to making changes to the leader’s role, but cautioned that he would not leave the position at the mercy of rank-and-file senators. He said he wanted to “empower our individual members or our committees to do things in the regular order” and open the amendment process, but “I’m not going to make massive changes that weaken the leadership position to the point where it is simply a free choice.” -all.”

Tillis suggested in September that it would be a deal breaker for him if either candidate engaged in a negotiation.

“If you’re willing to weaken your position to get a few votes, then you’re not fit to be leader, in my opinion,” Tillis said. “And I think most people think that way.”

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Associated Press writer Stephen Groves contributed to this report.

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