CHARLESTON, SC (WCSC) – The National Weather Service is monitoring a system it has now dubbed Potential Tropical Cyclone 18, which it expects will become Tropical Storm Rafael on Sunday evening.

As of 5 p.m. Sunday, the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.0 north and longitude 77.1 west, approximately 345 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica.

The system is moving northeast near 7 mph. A turn towards the north then the northwest is expected in the coming days.

According to the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica Monday evening and near or over the Cayman Islands Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. This system is expected to develop into a tropical depression Sunday evening and continued strengthening is forecast.

The estimated minimum central pressure, based on Air Force Hurricane data, is 1,004 mb or 29.65 inches.

Tropical Storm Patty rotates in the North Atlantic

As of 3 p.m. Sunday, the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 37.5 north and longitude 24.3 west, approximately 175 miles east-southeast of Lajes Air Base in the United States. Azores.

The storm is moving eastward at nearly 16 mph, and east to east-northeast movement is expected over the next few days.

According to the predicted trajectory, the center of Patty should move away from the Azores.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is expected over the next few days and Patty may become a post-tropical depression later Sunday or Sunday evening.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 80 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb or 29.30 inches.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, with local amounts of 4 inches, are forecast to occur over the Azores through Sunday.

Patty could degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by Sunday evening with gradual weakening until early next week.

1 other monitored area in the Caribbean

Meanwhile, forecasters are monitoring a third area of ​​low pressure located east of the southeastern Bahamas. It produces a wide area of ​​showers and thunderstorms as well as gusty winds over the adjacent waters of the southwest Atlantic.

Slow development of this system is possible over the next few days as it moves westward toward the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. After this time, this system is expected to be absorbed into a low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea by Monday evening, ending its chances of development.

Regardless of how the situation develops, local heavy rain is possible over the next few days from the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern United States. Bahamas.

There is only a 10% chance of this second system developing over the next week.

After Rafael, the remaining names on the list for the 2024 Atlantic storm season are Sara, Tony, Valerie and William.

The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.

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