Top Chinese lawmakers are meeting on Monday (November 4) to hammer out a major stimulus package that analysts say could expand further if former U.S. President Donald Trump wins the White House this week.

Beijing has responded in recent months to calls to step up support for the economy after years of inaction, announcing a series of measures, including rate cuts and the easing of some restrictions on home purchases.

But they refrained from revealing the figure for this long-awaited recovery plan, disappointing investors after the failure of a market rally due to the repeated failure of officials to commit to a turnover.

Analysts are now hoping that figure could emerge from this week’s meeting of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC), the top body of China’s parliament and headed by number three, Zhao Leji.

The standing committee reviews and approves all laws, including the allocation of funds from the Chinese budget.

“We are awaiting adoption of more details on the proposals,” said Heron Lim of Moody’s Analytics, including “how this additional funding would be allocated to address near-term economic issues.”

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Nomura economists expect lawmakers to approve around a trillion yuan (S$186 billion) in supplementary budget this week – mainly for debt-ridden local governments.

Analysts also expect Beijing to approve a one-time allocation of 1 trillion yuan for banks, aimed at writing off non-performing loans over the past four years.

“A lot of money will be used to cover losses,” added Alicia Garcia Herrero of Natixis.

“It’s not really a growth spurt.”

Concrete steps are expected to be announced at the end of the meeting on Friday – in time for Beijing to take stock of the US presidential election results.

“We believe the US election results will have some impact on the scale of Beijing’s stimulus package,” Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, said in a research note.

Both candidates have pledged to get tougher on Beijing, with Trump promising 60% tariffs on all Chinese goods entering the country.

Major challenges

Nomura economists expect Beijing to adjust the size of its stimulus measures based on the outcome.

“In our view, the size of China’s fiscal stimulus would be approximately 10 to 20 percent larger in the case of a Trump victory than in the scenario of a (Kamala) Harris victory,” wrote Read.

But he added that “the major challenges for Beijing emanate from within rather than from without.”

China is grappling with sluggish domestic consumption, a lingering real estate crisis and rising public debt – all factors that threaten Beijing’s official growth target of 5 percent for this year.

The real estate sector has long been a key driver of growth, but it is now mired in a sea of ​​debt.

Average prices of new residential properties rose slightly last month, according to a survey of 100 cities by independent researcher China Index Academy.

But Chinese cities and provinces are still struggling with many unfinished and unsold housing units, and buying them back could cost Beijing up to 3.3 trillion yuan, according to Natixis estimates.

Prolonged housing problems continue to lead to weak consumer consumption, according to Lim of Moody’s Analytics.

“The average Chinese consumer with existing mortgages does not feel like their wealth is increasing,” he said.

The issue of how local governments manage debt is also expected to be discussed at the NPC meeting this week.

Authorities at the county level and above will be required to report their debt situation to the NPC every year, said Huang Haihua, spokesperson for the legislative affairs commission of the NPC standing committee. during a press briefing on Friday.

But China’s economic woes run much deeper than local mismanagement and empty homes.

“The economy as a whole is losing productivity because of misallocated savings,” Garcia Herrero said, referring to problems with China’s industrial policy spending, including large subsidies.

“They really need to change all of this,” she said. AFP