“If Trump is not elected but refuses to concede again, how soon will we see his conviction for his earlier convictions while it is under challenge, and will his other criminal cases finally move forward?”

This is just one of the questions I received in a Reddit AMA (Ask me anything!) I made it this week.

Here’s how I answered this question and a few others:

Trump’s sentencing in New York is currently scheduled for November 26. It does not depend on the election results. In fact, Judge Merchan delayed it until after the election to avoid any accusations that it would impact the outcome. However, Merchan is first expected to rule Nov. 12 on whether Trump can overturn his guilty verdicts based on the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling.

If Merchan sides with Trump on this, then no conviction will be issued. But if Merchan sides with the state, then we can expect Trump to immediately appeal, potentially all the way to the Supreme Court. This is why Merchan established this schedule. which I noted that the date of November 26 is in no way certain.

“So if he wins, he’s pretty much safe from everything except Georgia. Correct? And at this point, it even looks like it’s falling apart for Fulton County Prosecutor Fani Willis. If he loses the election, what’s the worst that could happen to him? I can’t imagine that an ex-president could do this at any time. Would Harris be forced to pardon him to “keep the peace”? »

Trump’s federal affairs will be all but over if he wins. It’s just a matter of timing and mechanism: a legally untested self-pardon, or a less legally controversial (but arguably just as corrupt) move of getting his newly installed attorney general to dismiss cases.

Theoretically, Trump would still be responsible for both state affairs, but those should at least stop while he is in office. Regardless, I would not expect a sitting president to be tried on criminal charges, even in state court.

If he loses and is convicted in a federal case and/or the Georgia state case, prison time is a serious possibility. Harris would certainly not be required to pardon him as Ford chose to do Nixon. Given that Trump appears to have learned the wrong lessons from Nixon’s exit, it might not be wise for her to choose the path Ford took.

Subscribe to Deadline: Legal Newsletter for expert analysis on the week’s top legal topics, including Supreme Court updates and developments in Donald Trump’s legal cases.