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    • Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Update, Track, Spaghetti Models
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    Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Update, Track, Spaghetti Models

    Umito Posted on

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    Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is expected to become Tropical Storm Rafael on Monday as it continues to organize and move near Jamaica, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters estimate it will be a hurricane when it enters the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday evening.

    The Western Caribbean will see the heaviest rainfall over Jamaica and parts of Cuba through midweek, with 3 to 6 inches expected, and up to 9 inches in some areas, with the potential for flooding and flows of mud. The Cayman Islands are under a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica.

    Heavy rain will spread northward toward Florida and adjacent parts of the southeastern United States by mid-to-late week, forecasters said.

    Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Patty moved near the Azores on Sunday and is expected to dissipate away from land. The NHC is also monitoring an area of ​​low pressure near the northern Leeward Islands that could develop in a few days.

    There is no threat today of landing on the American continent and Hurricane strikes in November remain rare.

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    The next names for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season are Rafael and Sara.

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    Here is what exists at 7 a.m. on Monday, November 4:

    Will Potential Tropical Storm 18 become Tropical Storm Rafael? Is a hurricane heading towards Florida?

    The waters of the Caribbean are warm enough for tropical developmenteven this late in the season. The system is expected to soon become a tropical depression, the NHC said.

    What happens next depends on the wind shear, or disruptive breezes, that have kept tropical development low in recent weeks, and a decline in the jet stream more than a thousand miles away.

    “If this jet stream extends far enough east, it will tend to pick up the tropical feature and possibly carry it across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and into southern Florida,” Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather Meteorologist said. “But if the jet stream descends westward, the tropical feature could enter the western or central Gulf of Mexico, where it could threaten areas as far west as Louisiana or Texas.

    “It is also possible that the phenomenon continues westward and diminishes over southern Mexico,” he added.

    Where is Potential Tropical Storm 18 located?

    • Location: About 220 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, about 425 miles southeast of Grand Cayman
    • Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph
    • Current movement: North at 7 mph
    • Minimum central pressure: 1003 MB

    As of 7:00 a.m. EST, the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.8 north and longitude 76.8 west. The system is moving northward at nearly 7 mph. A northwestward movement is expected later today and is expected to continue over the next few days.

    On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica this evening, be near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and approach Cuba on Wednesday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to strengthen into a depression or tropical storm today, with further strengthening expected thereafter. The system could be near or reach hurricane intensity as it passes near the Cayman Islands and Cuba.

    Who is likely to be affected by potential tropical cyclone eighteen?

    WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by this evening.

    PRECIPITATION: Heavy rain will affect parts of the western Caribbean, with the heaviest rain occurring over Jamaica and parts of Cuba through midweek. Rainfall totals between 3 and 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding may occur in parts of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rain will spread northward toward Florida and adjacent areas of the southeastern United States by mid to late week.

    STORM WAVE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on Monday and in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday.

    SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean over the coming days.

    Watches and Warnings Issued Ahead of Potential Tropical Storm Eighteen

    Here are the latest watches and warnings issued for areas threatened by potential tropical storm eighteen:

    Hurricane Watch:

    Hurricane Watch: A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the first expected appearance of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous.

    Tropical Storm Warning:

    Tropical Storm Warning: A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

    No watches or warnings have been issued for Florida at this time.

    Special note regarding spaghetti models: The illustrations include a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the four or five best-performing models to make its forecasts.

    Where is Subtropical Storm Patty located?

    Location: 38.2N 18.0W, approximately 490 miles east of the Azores

    Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph

    Current movement: East-northeast at 20 mph

    Minimum central pressure: 996 MB

    At 0900 GMT, the center of Tropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 38.2 North and longitude 18.0 West. Patty is moving east-northeast at nearly 20 mph. A turn towards the east-northeast is expected later today.

    Maximum sustained winds decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected and Patty is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 130 km from the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

    What else is there and how likely are they to strengthen each other?

    Southeast Atlantic: A low pressure area could develop near the northern Leeward Islands in a few days. Slow development of this system is possible after this period, as it generally moves westward over the southwest Atlantic.

    • Chance of training over 48 hours: low, close to 0%.
    • Chance of training over 7 days: low, 20 percent.

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    When is hurricane season in the Atlantic?

    The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

    The Atlantic Basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

    Countdown: When will hurricane season end?

    Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms past near your city

    What’s next?

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    Umito
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