Conventional wisdom suggests that the favorite in the Conservative leadership race never wins. In defiance of this principle, Kemi Badenoch – the favorite of the bookmakers since January – is now the leader of the Conservative Party.

Badenoch defeated Robert Jenrick (53,806 votes to 41,388) by a slightly smaller margin than Liz Truss’s triumph over Rishi Sunak in September 2022. However, it is worth noting that Truss received 28,000 more votes than Badenoch. This time, the participation rate was lower, at 72.8%. There was also nervous laughter in the room when it was revealed that more than 600 ballots had been rejected, including 45 for voting for more than one candidate.

Bob Blackman, chairman of the 1922 backbench committee which oversaw the contest, congratulated the 44-year-old North West Essex MP and highlighted the historic nature of the result. “Isn’t it great that we have another woman as leader, and isn’t it great that we are the first party to have a black leader?” he said. Then, in a not-so-subtle mockery of Rachel Reeves and her budget speech on Wednesday, he hailed “another shattered glass ceiling.”

When Badenoch herself took the stage, in a conservative blue suit, her remarks were brief and sweet. Offered 20 minutes for her victory speech, she used barely five. She was unusually conciliatory towards her opponent (with whom relations became increasingly strained as the competition dragged on), telling Jenrick “you and I know that we don’t actually disagree on very much.” She also wanted to thank Rishi Sunak. His message to the party was the same as throughout his campaign: “It’s time to get to work, it’s time to renew.”

What renewal actually means is unclear. Badenoch was moderate during the leadership race, refusing to set an agenda and instead promising to rebuild the party from scratch based on conservative principles. She has a clear world view of what is wrong in both the party and the country – identifying Britain’s unelected institutions and governance structures as the source of the problem – but few concrete plans to fix it. This was enough to convince the members. How this shapes the opposition party, with its minority of just 121 MPs, is another matter.

His task now is twofold: to rebuild a broken party and to provide meaningful opposition to the Labor government. We’ll have clearer direction when Badenoch starts naming her shadow cabinet (she said there would be a role for Jenrick and the rest of the leadership candidates, although they may not want to accept them all ), and I’ll get to see her in action against Keir Starmer for the first time at the PMQs on Wednesday. During the campaign, his supporters highlighted his ability to grab headlines and establish discourse with his confrontational style – crucial for an opposition in crisis. Rebuilding, however, will be a more difficult challenge.

“It’s time to tell the truth,” Badenoch told his audience victoriously. Is this a truth the Conservative Party is ready to hear?