WASHINGTON (AP) — One question will constantly be asked on election night: who won?

The Associated Press will answer this question for nearly 5,000 contested elections and runoffs across the United States, from presidential and state ballot measures to a variety of local offices.

The AP has been tabulating voting results and declaring election winners for more than 170 years, filling what could otherwise be a gap of critical information of up to a month between Election Day and official certification of results .

What determines the winners? A careful, in-depth analysis of the latest available vote counts and various other election data, with the ultimate goal of answering this question: Are there circumstances in which the lagging candidate can catch up? If the answer is no, then the leading candidate wins.

The AP is also trying to determine how the ballots counted so far were cast, as well as what types of voting — such as mail-in ballots or in-person Election Day — remain.

Indeed, the method chosen by a voter often indicates who they voted for. Since the issue of mail-in voting became highly politicized during the 2020 election, most mail-in votes nationwide have been cast by Democratic voters, while most in-person votes on Election Day have been expressed by Republicans.

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In many states, it is possible to find out which votes will be counted first in past elections or plans announced by election officials. In others, votes counted so far are clearly marked by type.

This helps determine whether an early lead should decrease or increase.

For example, if a state counts votes cast in person on Election Day first, followed by mail-in votes, that suggests the early Republican lead in vote counting could narrow as more ballots are cast. by correspondence are compiled.

But if the reverse is true and mail-in ballots are counted first, an early Republican lead could be the first sign of a comfortable victory.

Finding Clues from Election Data

The AP’s analysis to determine winners also relies heavily on other election data, including long-standing voting trends in a given region. Past election results over time show that states and counties with a long history of lopsided Republican or Democratic victories tend to maintain the same voting patterns from election to election.

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Even in hotly contested races, comparing current voting patterns with those of past elections can provide important clues.

For example, if a Democratic candidate performs a few percentage points higher in all counties that reported votes in a state that a Democrat previously won by a narrow margin, that could be a sign of a Democratic victory. more comfortable. But if the Republican performs a few percentage points higher, that could indicate an extremely close race, or even a reverse outcome.

Significant changes in a region’s voting patterns that differ significantly from statewide trends are certainly possible, but tend to become entrenched over a period of multiple elections. This helps analysts understand whether a candidate’s lead is an expected outcome or a sign of a close race. It also helps determine whether the remaining uncounted ballots come from areas that would likely benefit one candidate over another.

Demographic data can also inform vote counting. For example, changes that differ from statewide trends could be explained by a change within a specific group, such as Hispanic voters or white voters without a college degree.

Leveraging AP VoteCast

Another tool available to AP decision-making teams is AP VoteCast, a comprehensive 50-state election survey that provides a detailed look at who voted in an election and what they had in mind when they voted. AP VoteCast data allows in some cases to call uncompetitive or less competitive races as polls close or shortly after votes are initially released.

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When reviewing closing poll calls, the AP will only declare a winner if AP VoteCast data confirms the expected outcome in that contest based on past voting history and other pre-election data.

When does the AP call a race?

In almost all cases, races can be called well before 100% of the votes have been counted. The AP’s team of reporters and election analysts will run a race as soon as a clear winner can be determined. This may seem obvious, but it is the guiding principle that guides the organization’s election calling process.

The AP’s race calls are not predictions and are not based on speculation. These are statements based on an analysis of voting results and other election data that a candidate has become the winner and that no other candidate in the race will be able to overtake the winner once all votes have been counted .

Why might the AP not declare a winner?

The PA may delay determining a winner if the voting results conflict with the expected outcome of the contest, as indicated by available election data. In other words, if the voting results show a wide lead for a candidate but a combination of past voting history, demographics or AP VoteCast data indicates a different result, the AP will carefully review the voting results before making a decision.

In competitive races, AP analysts may have to wait for additional votes to be counted or confirm specific information about how many ballots remain to be counted.

The AP may declare a race “too close to call” if a race is so close that there is no clear winner even after all ballots except provisional postal votes that arrived late were counted.

Competitive races where votes are actively tabulated – for example in states that have large numbers of voters after election night – could be considered “too early to call.” The designation “too close to call” is not used for these types of races.

The AP can also decide not to call a race if the margin between the top two candidates is less than 0.5 percentage points, unless it determines that the margin is wide enough that it cannot change during a recount.

Things that don’t affect a call

Calls for a PA race are never based on lobbying by campaigns or political parties, on announcements made by other news outlets, or on candidate victory speeches. Although he will never decide a winner based on a concession speech, in some cases a concession is the final piece of the puzzle confirming that there will be no recount in a close race.