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    • CFP woe for Penn State and Clemson
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    CFP woe for Penn State and Clemson

    Umito Posted on

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    We hear you, college football fans. It’s easy to become emotional after a weekend of ups and downs. Here at Overreaction HQ, we’re trying to get a bird’s eye view of the playoff landscape to determine who has a realistic path to the final top 12. But if it’s your team that just suffered a discouraging loss, you’re pretty discouraged right now. – “Aspirations are in the clouds, but your hopes are dashed,” as Howard Jones said. (Google it, kids, it’s awesome.)

    In this edition of the top five overreactions of the week, we’ll assess the damage in a few places, including campuses as well as a few league offices.

    State of Pennsylvania

    The crisis for the Nittany Lions faithful is essentially twofold. Most have accepted the fact that the Big Ten title is no longer on the table, because, barring some incredibly strange events, the championship game will pit Oregon against the winner of Ohio State-Indiana. Penn State is still very much in the general discussion as long as it wins its remaining games to finish 11-1.

    But the question that then arises is this: will the Lions really do any damage once there? As has been well documented, the team’s recent seasons have gone predictably, winning the games they are supposed to win but unable to reach the top. Would a round of 16 victory against a mid-tier player from another power conference even be considered a success if it was followed by a quarterfinal loss to one of the sport’s elite?

    Internally, of course, team members can’t afford to ponder such questions, as there is still work to be done with a few teams that still have winning records on the schedule. Fans will stay on board until the end, but this week’s disappointment might take a while to wear off.

    TIRED ACT: James Franklin and Penn State fail again

    HIGH AND DOWN: Ohio State leads Week 10 winners and losers

    Clemson

    You could almost feel the panic meter rising around Death Valley as Saturday night’s game against Louisville methodically slipped away from the Tigers. With this result, it became clear that Clemson’s six-game winning streak was largely based on empty calories.

    The Tigers will now need help just to reach the ACC title game in the form of a loss to Miami or SMU. Assuming they don’t figure it out, they could still be on the periphery of the general discussion if they manage to get to 10-2, which would include a win at Pittsburgh and a home triumph over South Carolina in of the regular season finale. . A loss in either — or this week at Virginia Tech — would eliminate all doubt, and that wouldn’t sit well with a fan base accustomed to playing for championships.

    Texas A&M

    The situation for the two defeats Aggies is a little different, in that their most realistic playoff scenario is still winning the SEC title or at least reaching the championship game. A win against Texas at the end of the month would do the trick, as Georgia and Tennessee still have to play each other and the Aggies have a head-to-head tiebreaker against LSU.

    But a second conference loss, which would be the Aggies’ third overall, would leave their playoff fate in the hands of the committee. Their resume might hold up against that of other teams in the three-loss pool, but they would be wise to not put themselves in that position. They have a bye week, then a game against New Mexico State to tie things up before a trip to Auburn and a home date with their biggest rival.

    The big 12

    There must have been a tiny bit of anxiety within the league office as two of the conference’s top three contenders, Iowa State and Kansas State, lost within minutes of each other Saturday night. It’s extremely unlikely that the conference will be completely shut out of the field, but these results leave open the possibility that the eventual Big 12 champion won’t earn a first-round bye.

    Remember, automatic spots are guaranteed for the five highest-ranked conference champions, with the top four among the guaranteed quarterfinal spots. Couldn’t the winner of the Big 12 make the top four? It’s not out of the question with Boise State ranked 14th in LBM Coaches All-American Poll.

    There is, of course, one Big 12 team still unscathed. If Brigham Young got to 13-0 and thus won the league title, they couldn’t be denied a top-four spot, especially with that early win over eventual ACC champion SMU in the bank. But if the Cougars fall in the conference finals or drop one of their remaining games in November, whichever team becomes league champion will suffer multiple losses. Iowa State and Kansas State will face off at the end of the month, and either Colorado or Texas Tech will suffer another loss when they face each other this week. We’ll know a little more about how the committee views the so-called Group of Five conferences, particularly how Boise State and Army compare to Big 12 contenders, when the initial rankings are released Tuesday night.

    The American

    Speaking of the army, the Black Knights did their part for their new league by taking care of their academy rival, Air Force, despite the absence of starting quarterback Bryson Daily. But overall, it was a tough weekend for American Athletic, with Navy losing a long-delayed game at Rice and Memphis falling to Texas-San Antonio. Mountain West leader Boise State, meanwhile, continued to be one of the best teams outside the Power Four with a dominant outing against San Diego State on Friday night.

    If the Broncos keep winning, the American may not be able to do anything to crack the playoff roster. There’s that opportunity for Army against Notre Dame in three weeks at Yankee Stadium, but the Black Knights will almost certainly need a healthy day-to-day for that one as well as this week’s trip to the North. Texas to keep their hopes of spoiling the party alive.

    Umito
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