• Kamala Harris’ growing election odds in recent days have weakened the Trump trade.
• In a weekend poll, Harris led Trump in Iowa, tilting the betting markets toward Harris.
• Treasury yields, the US dollar, the Mexican peso, Bitcoin and Trump Media stocks are moving.

A surprise change in a key weekend presidential poll has modified betting odds toward Kamala Harris, hitting out at a crowd of “Trump Trades” who have gathered in recent weeks.

A survey published this weekend Harris led former President Donald Trump in Iowa, 47% to 44%. The poll, conducted by Des Moines Register/Mediacom and conducted by pollster J. Ann Selzer, is significant in that Iowa is considered a state likely to be won by Trump.

“It’s hard for anyone to say they saw this coming,” Selzer told the Des Moines Register. “She has clearly moved into a leadership position.”

The poll sent shockwaves through betting markets over the weekend, with Kalshi showing Harris’ odds briefly overtaking Trump at 51% to 49% for the first time since early October.

As of 11:35 a.m. ET Monday morning, the odds on the betting site were 55% for Trump and 45% for Harris. On Polymarket, where Trump’s rating was above 60% last week, it fell to 58.1%, Harris’s to 42.8%.

The sharp variation in betting odds has created a shock wave that is being felt on the financial markets on the eve of the elections.

Here’s where the five parts of the Trump Trade stand.

(1) Treasury yields fall

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield plunged 12 basis points on Monday, falling to 4.275% after the weekend poll surprise.

The rise in Treasury yields since the Fed cut interest rates in September reflects the market’s belief that a second Trump presidency seemed likely and would be an inflationary event due to his promises of drastic tariffs and mass expulsions, which would fuel price and wage growth respectively.

In recent weeks, investors have priced in higher yields, believing that Trump’s policies would make it difficult for the Fed to cut rates further.

(2) The US dollar is weakening

The dollar soared in October as the chances of a Trump presidency increased and markets saw the potential for higher tariffs and interest rates to boost the currency compared to its rivals.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of other major currencies, jumped about 4% in October.

However, this trade fell back on Monday following the rise in Harris’ betting odds, with the US dollar index falling almost 1% to 103.55.

(3) The Mexican peso gains

The peso has fallen sharply over the past month as Trump’s chances of winning the election have increased.

The former president is seen as likely to implement tough trade policies toward Mexico in order to “reshore” Mexico’s manufacturing industry to the United States, a move that would hurt the peso.

Over the past month, the Mexican peso has lost 3% against the U.S. dollar, but has retraced much of that loss since polls and the betting market shifted toward Harris, gaining 1.5% on Monday.

(4) Bitcoin falls

Bitcoin was one of Trump’s hottest exchanges this year due to the former president’s enthusiastic embrace of the crypto market.

Trump delivered the keynote speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in July and participated in the launch of a crypto token last month. He was considered the “president of crypto” by the market and his victory was raised prospects of enormous gains in the price of the token.

Although Harris has a positive attitude towards the Bitcoin and Crypto community, it has not been as strong as Trump’s.

Therefore, with Harris betting odds increasing over the weekend, bitcoin is down about 2% since Friday to $68,350.

(5) Trump Media shares fall

Trump’s biggest exchange may have been Trump Media and Technology Groupthe parent company of social media platform Truth Social. On-board stock a meme-like gathering In recent weeks, the former president has strengthened his position in the betting markets and in the polls.

The valuation of the company itself eclipsed that of Elon Musk’s Xbased on Fidelity’s last update in August.

However, the stock has seen a sharp reversal since Trump’s chances of winning the election declined. Truth Social shares fell as much as 5% on Monday and are down about 47% since last week.