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What to watch on election day in the United States
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What to watch on election day in the United States

By Steve Peoples, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Election Day is fast approaching. In a few hours, the final votes for the 2024 presidential election will take place.

In a deeply divided nation, the election is a true showdown between Democrats Kamala Harris and republican Donald Trump.

We know that there is seven battleground states This is what will decide the outcome, barring any major surprises. But major questions remain about the timing of the results, the composition of the electorate, the influx of disinformation, and even the possibility of political violence. At the same time, both sides are bracing for a lengthy legal battle that could further complicate matters.

Here’s what to watch on the eve of Election Day 2024:

History will be written anyway

Given all the twists and turns of the past few months, it’s easy to overlook the historical significance of this election.

Harris would become the first female president in the 248-year history of the United States. She would also be the first black woman and person of South Asian descent to hold this position. Harris and her campaign have largely downplayed gender and race, fearing alienating some supporters. But the importance of a Harris victory would not escape historians.

Democratic Vice President for President Kamala Harris boards Air Force Two
Democratic Vice President for President Kamala Harris walks toward Air Force Two as she departs Oakland County International Airport in Waterford Township, Mich., Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, en route to Lansing, Michigan (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, Pool)

A Trump victory would represent a different kind of historic accomplishment. He would become the first person convicted of a crime elected to the U.S. presidency, after being found guilty of 34 counts in a hush money case in New York a little over five months ago.

Trump, who still faces criminal charges in at least two separate criminal cases, claimed he was a victim of a politicized justice system. And tens of millions of voters apparently believe him – or are willing to ignore his extraordinary legal background.

How long will it take to find out the winner?

In the United States, Election Day is now often considered election week, as each state follows its own rules and practices for counting ballots – not to mention legal challenges – that can delay results. But the truth is that no one knows how long it will take this time for the winner to be announced.

In 2020, the Associated Press declared President Joe Biden emerged victorious Saturday afternoon, four days after the polls closed. But even then, the AP called North Carolina for Trump 10 days after Election Day and Georgia for Biden 16 days later after a hand recount.

Four years earlier, the 2016 election was decided just hours after most polling stations closed. The AP declared Trump the winner on election night at 2:29 a.m. (it was technically Wednesday morning on the East Coast).

Former President Donald Trump, Republican presidential candidate, is reflected in bulletproof glass as he finishes his speech at a campaign rally.
Former President Donald Trump, Republican presidential candidate, is reflected in bulletproof glass as he finishes his speech at a campaign rally in Lititz, Pa., Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024. (AP Photo/ Matt Rourke)

This time, both campaigns believe the race is extremely close between the seven key states that should decide the election, barring any major surprises: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The size of the card and the narrowness of the race make it difficult to predict when a winner might be declared.

Where can I find early clues about how the competition might play out?

Look at what’s happening in two key East Coast states, North Carolina and Georgia, where results could come relatively quickly. That doesn’t mean we’ll get the final results in these states quickly if the returns are close, but these are the early swing states that could give a sense of the kind of night we’re heading into.

To dig deeper, look at urban and suburban areas in the industrial North and Southeast, where Democrats have made gains since 2020.

In North Carolina, Harris’ margins in Wake and Mecklenburg counties, home respectively to Raleigh, the state capital, and Charlotte, the state’s largest city, will reveal just how much Trump will have to oust less populated rural areas that he dominated. .

In Pennsylvania, Harris needs strong turnout in blue Philadelphia, but she also seeks to solidify Democrats’ advantage in the arc of suburban counties to the north and west of the city. She campaigned aggressively in Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery counties, where Biden improved on Clinton’s margins of victory in 2016. The Philadelphia metro area, including the four pass counties, accounts for 43 percent of the voice from Pennsylvania.

Elsewhere in the Blue Wall, Trump must curb Democratic growth in Michigan’s key suburban counties outside Detroit, particularly in Oakland County. He faces the same challenge in Waukesha County, Wisconsin, outside Milwaukee.

Where are the candidates?

Trump will likely spend the very first hours of Election Day in Michigan, where he is scheduled to hold a final nighttime rally in Grand Rapids, as has become his tradition.

The Republican candidate plans to spend the rest of the day in Florida, where he is expected to vote in person – although he previously said he would vote early. He is scheduled to host a campaign watch party in Palm Beach Tuesday night.

Harris plans to attend an election night event at Howard University in Washington, a historically black college where she earned a degree in economics and political science in 1986 and was an active member of the Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority.

Aside from Howard, no public schedule has been announced for Election Day.

Harris said Sunday that she had just “filled out” her absentee ballot and that it was “on its way to California.”

Who is left to show up on Election Day?

On the eve of Election Day, it’s unclear which voters will show up to vote on Tuesday.

More than 77 million people participated in early voting – either in person or by mail. So many people have already voted that some officials say elections in states like Georgia could be a “dead city” on election day.