The watch in the Caribbean for more than a week finally gave rise to a system that is now likely to become the 11th hurricane of the season. Rafael’s training delivered the 17th named system of the 2024 season on Monday afternoon.

Current forecasts will see Rafael pass Jamaica today and through the Cayman Islands late tonight as a powerful tropical storm. As the intensity forecast shifts toward the 11th hurricane of the season, a hurricane warning remains in effect for all of the Cayman Islands.

This is an unfortunate forecast going forward. A powerful Category 1 hurricane is currently expected to strike Cuba’s western provinces on Wednesday, before reappearing in the Gulf of Mexico. Since yesterday evening, parts of western Cuba have been placed under hurricane alert in anticipation of the arrival and impact of Rafael.

Cuba, which recently suffered a multi-day nationwide power outage, has already experienced two other storms this season. Debby crossed the island in July while Oscar moved at a snail’s pace over eastern Cuba last month.

For Rafael, even if the season is late, the impacts will not change. As expected, a storm surge of 6 to 9 feet is possible in Cuba as damaging winds move across the country with heavy rainfall locally.

As for the Florida Keys, residents should take note of the tropical storm watch in effect. This includes the Middle Keys and Lower Keys and was issued primarily due to concern for prolonged tropical storm conditions, even for a short period of time. Whether or not a warning is issued, gusts of up to 50 mph will be possible with bands of rain moving in Wednesday evening.

Late this week, Rafael is expected to weaken in the northern Gulf, but at this point in the forecast our confidence remains low. While this seems like a pass to the NBC6 viewing area, it’s a constant reminder that we’re never too far from a threat, no matter what time of season it is.

Finally, it is important to start planning for the season which has proven to be a roller coaster of ups and downs. From the anxiety of an approaching storm to the exhaustion of storm recovery, the 2024 season has played out differently for many communities. From the coastal areas of Texas and Florida to the mountains of North Carolina, 2024 has been truly unique.

While pre-season forecasts prepared us for impact, the consistent distribution of storms caught our attention. Fortunately, South Florida was (again) spared this season.

On the contrary, this year was a reminder that the season is truly a marathon and not a sprint. Since September 24 through Monday, 10 storms have formed. According to Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University, this broke the 1950 record of 9 storms developing during the same period.

After Rafael, let’s hope it’s time to pull the plug on this hurricane season.