Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi (file photo)

As the United States, the world’s largest economy and military power, approaches its presidential election on November 5, the stakes are high for many countries, including the world’s largest democracy, India .
The US presidential elections could have far-reaching consequences for global stability and growth, particularly given the stark political differences between the Democratic candidate and the Democratic candidate. Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump. The global economy, including the Indian economic landscape, could witness major changes depending on the outcome of this crucial vote.

“The greatest election year in history”: why the American vote matters

The United Nations has called 2024 “the greatest election year in human history.” While almost half of the world’s population is eligible to vote, including in 72 countries, the importance of some elections overshadows others. Among them, the American elections stand out as one of the most important. As the United States heads to the polls, the world watches with bated breath, aware that American leadership has far-reaching implications on every continent.

Trump’s second term? What this could mean for India

If former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump wins his second term, India’s future relations with the United States could possibly take a new direction. Trump, who has shown keen interest in strengthening ties with India, has publicly pledged to strengthen what he calls the “great partnership” between the two nations. In a recent article on X, just before the US elections, Trump reaffirmed his friendship with the Prime Minister. Narendra Modicelebrating their close diplomatic relations.

A message to the Indian diaspora and a position on Bangladesh

In his strategic outreach to the Indian diaspora, Trump condemned recent violence against Hindus and other minorities in Bangladesh, where there are reports of significant attacks against the Hindu community.
The statement comes amid a complex geopolitical context in South Asia, with former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina apparently seeking refuge in India following her ouster. Trump’s message underscores his intention to maintain security and respect for minorities in South Asia, signaling potential changes in U.S. foreign policy under his administration.
“Kamala and Joe have ignored Hindus across the world and in America. They have been a disaster from Israel to Ukraine to our own southern border, but we will make America stronger and bring peace through strength !” the former US president said in a Diwali message on X.

Hindu American groups also applauded Trump for promising to protect the human rights of Hindus across the world, including in the United States and Bangladesh, and to protect them from the “anti-religious agenda of the radical left.”

A Modi-Trump link with nationalist synergies

The friendship between Trump and Modi is not new. Their camaraderie was clearly on display during the “Hey, Modi!” » 2019. event in Texas, where Trump welcomed Modi in front of a crowd of 50,000, one of the largest US gatherings for a foreign leader. In early 2020, Trump returned the favor by traveling to India for the “Namaste Trump” event in Ahmedabad, attended by over 100,000 people at the world’s largest cricket stadium. These high-profile events reflect mutual admiration, with Trump praising Prime Minister Modi’s leadership and India’s economic progress.

“India first and “America first”: a shared vision?

Prime Minister Modi’s vision of ‘India First’ aligns with Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda, with both leaders emphasizing domestic growth, economic nationalism and border security. Their similar ideologies have fostered an alignment of interests between the United States and India, which could deepen further if Trump wins the election. Trump’s emphasis on strategic partnerships could lead to closer economic and defense collaboration with India, impacting areas from trade to military cooperation.

Trade and Economic Impact: Outlook for India’s Key Sectors

A Trump administration would likely pursue U.S.-centric trade policies, pushing India to reduce trade barriers or impose tariffs. This could impact key Indian sectors like IT, pharmaceuticals and textiles, which export considerable quantities to the US. Trump expressed concerns about India’s tariffs, calling the country an “abuser” in the matter, while recognizing Modi as a “fantastic man.” By promoting balanced trade, Trump’s approach could prompt India to recalibrate its trade strategies, although it also opens the door to potential opportunities.

Decoupling with China: an opportunity for India?

Trump’s opposition to China, particularly on trade and security, could benefit India. His administration’s efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese manufacturing could encourage U.S. companies to diversify their supply chains. With favorable policies, India could attract these companies, positioning itself as an alternative production hub and potentially accelerating economic growth.

Strengthening defense cooperation

The previous Trump administration strengthened the Quad – a security partnership between the United States, India, Japan and Australia – to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Under Trump’s leadership, a second term would likely see continued joint military exercises, arms sales and technology transfers. Such defense collaboration would strengthen India’s military capabilities, especially given its tensions with neighboring countries such as China and Pakistan.

Immigration policies and the impact of H-1B on Indian talent

Trump’s restrictive immigration policies, particularly regarding the H-1B visa program, have affected many Indian professionals in the United States. If re-elected, Trump could revive these policies, creating barriers for skilled Indian workers and potentially affecting sectors dependent on Indian talent, particularly technology. Stricter immigration policies could incentivize Indian tech companies to explore alternative markets or invest more domestically, creating new dynamics in the global talent landscape.

South Asia Strategy: Balancing Relations with Pakistan and Counter-Terrorism

Trump’s South Asia policy could impact India’s regional interests. Although he showed willingness to cooperate with Pakistan, Trump also demanded accountability in the fight against terrorism. Its “peace through strength” approach could signal a tougher US stance on terrorism and extremism, aligned with India’s own security concerns. The Trump-led United States could put more pressure on Pakistan to curb militant activities, which could benefit India’s security objectives.
See also:
US presidential election | Trump vs. Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris