close
close

Apre-salomemanzo

Breaking: Beyond Headlines!

    • What could tilt the elections? 6 things that can decide the race
    aecifo

    What could tilt the elections? 6 things that can decide the race

    Umito Posted on

    play

    WASHINGTON – After months of decryption countless surveysrising and falling betting markets and a historical gender gapthe 2024 elections are here − and we will soon know if the Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump will be the next president.

    More than 80 million people have voted early, and about the same number are expected to go to the polls in person on Tuesday to decide a very close election that will likely be played out in seven key battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Georgia. , Nevada and Arizona.

    Postal ballots counted late, especially in Pennsylvania and Wisconsinthis means we may not know the winner on election night.

    He wears a wild sprint to election day between Trump, twice impeached and four times former president indictedAnd Harristhe current vice-president who only launched her campaign at the end of July after President Joe Biden abandoned. The race was marked by two assassination attempts targeting Trump.

    Here are six things to watch for on Election Day that could play a key role in deciding whether Harris or Trump wins:

    How big will the gender gap be?

    The 2024 race long ago morphed into a “boys versus girls” election, with polls showing Harris performing significantly. better in women and Trump among men.

    Harris is in the running to become the nation’s first female president. A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll From October 14 to 18, Harris led nationally 53 to 36 percent, with female voters, and Trump led by about the same margin, 53 to 37 percent, with male voters. .

    Given that women historically vote in slightly higher proportions than men, gender dynamics could give Harris an advantage. With a focus on the fight against abortion after Roe v. Wade, the Harris campaign relied on winning over a large number of female voters to help Harris win.

    Democrats encouraged by early voting women’s turnout outpaced men by about 9 percentage points nationally, about the same margin as in the 2020 election, when Biden beat Trump.

    Will the vote of Trump’s brothers be retained?

    To overcome Harris’ dominance among female voters, Trump targeted an often overlooked voting bloc: young men who lack university degrees.

    Trump’s appearances at UFC fights and a college football game. His podcast interviews with Joe Rogan and internet celebrities and influencers Adin Ross, Theo Von and Logan Paul. His deployment of a Trump-branded sneaker. Trump’s embrace of wrestling icon Hulk Hogan.

    More: The Brothers’ Vote: Trump and Harris Fight Over What It Means to Be a Man in America

    All these activities – and the “macho” character displayed during the election campaign – have targeted a part of the electorate that the Trump campaign believes can help the former president win the election: male voters under 50 who were undecided. as the election approaches, which represents about 11% of the electorate in battleground states.

    Many of these voters are considered low-information, low-propensity voters, who do not closely follow every move of the presidential election and do not always vote. Trump needs them to come forward.

    Money boost for Harris?

    Democrats haven’t represented older people as a voting bloc in a presidential election since Al Gore in 2000, but polls suggest Harris could achieve it this year thanks to older women.

    Some called this a potential “money push” for Harris and “grandmotherly.”

    In the October USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll, Harris was narrowly ahead of voters 65 or older, 46 to 44 percent over Trump nationally. A national AARP poll as of late September, Harris had a 54 to 42 percent lead over Trump among older women. Rising costs and protections for Social Security and Medicare are among older women’s top priorities, according to AARP. But for many, abortion is too − perhaps remembering an America where they had greater reproductive rights than their daughters and granddaughters.

    More: Iowa poll: Kamala Harris edges Donald Trump for lead as Election Day approaches. Here’s how

    A superb Des Moines Register/Mediacom A poll released over the weekend found Harris leading Trump by three percentage points in red Iowa, thanks in part to an extraordinary gap among senior women — a gap that could propel Harris to victory if it came down to the battlefields of the Midwest.

    The poll finds Harris leading Iowa senior women by a wide margin of 63 to 28 percent and senior men by 47 to 45 percent. The poll also found Harris leading among independent voters, between 57 and 29 percent.

    Will Trump get rid of black and Latino voters?

    Polls suggest the Trump campaign has managed to alienate some black and Latino voters — two Democratic strongholds — by targeting young male voters from both groups.

    If Trump increases his share of the black vote by even a small fraction in urban centers such as Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee, then Harris, to win, will have to catch up by building on recent Democratic gains among educated white voters in the suburbs. .

    In 2020, according to exit polls, Black voters supported Biden over Trump between 92 and 8%, while Latino voters supported Biden between 65 and 32%. The USA TODAY/Suffolk October Poll found that Harris led black voters by a narrower margin of 72% to 17%. A national survey of Latino voters conducted last week by Florida International University found that Harris ahead 57% to 33% among Latino votersregaining the ground it had lost.

    Harris leads Trump 84 to 16 percent among black voters in Pennsylvania and 75 to 25 percent in Michigan, both underperforming Biden, according to a Marist College poll last week. In Wisconsin, Marist found that Harris had support from 63% of non-whites, while Biden had 73% support in 2020.

    Yet polls have Harris leading in all three states, narrowly, because she is performing better than Biden with white voters: she leads Trump 51 to 47 percent with white voters in Pennsylvania, 51 to 48 percent. in Michigan and 50 to 48 percent in Wisconsin. . This suggests that Harris could offset slippage among voters of color by widening margins with white suburban voters.

    A Puerto Rican reaction?

    Some Puerto Rican voters rallied behind Harris based on actor Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage” during a recent Trump rally at Madison Square Garden in New York.

    Could the backlash be strong enough to swing the election in Pennsylvania?

    Pennsylvania has a growing population of more than a million Hispanic voters — 615,000 are expected to vote — including a significant group of Puerto Rican voters in Allentown, the state’s third-largest city.

    Harris leads Latino voters in Pennsylvania 64 to 30 percent, according to a poll released Sunday by Noticias Univision and YouGov, and she leads the state’s Puerto Rican voters 67 to 27 percent. The poll also found that most Latinos in Pennsylvania, including Puerto Ricans, were offended by Hinchliffe’s joke: 67 percent of respondents said it was “more racist than humorous,” including 71 percent of Puerto Ricans.

    Harris campaigned in Allentown on Monday as part of a day-long trip across Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes, the largest battleground. With a close outcome expected in Pennsylvania, the state’s Puerto Ricans could play an important role.

    Will the “blue wall” hold its shape or break?

    As Harris and Trump attempt to secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win, the first place to look is the so-called “blue wall” of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

    The three Rust Belt states have voted as a bloc in every presidential election since 1988, with one of the presidential candidates winning all three. Biden won both in 2020 after Trump shifted the three “blue wall” states to the Republican column in 2016.

    If Harris wins all three “blue wall” states on Tuesday, she will likely win the election even if she loses all four Sun Belt battleground states – North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. This assumes Harris wins Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, where she is leading in the polls, as well as every other state in which she is heavily favored. Harris would win the Electoral College 270-268 in this scenario.

    But for Trump, a victory in one of the “blue wall” states — but particularly the biggest prize, Pennsylvania — would open up multiple paths for him to reach 270 by pairing that victory with wins in the Sun states. Belt, where he generally questioned louder.

    For example, if Trump wins Pennsylvania – but loses Wisconsin and Michigan – he would win 271-267 in the Electoral College if he also won three of the Sun Belt states.

    In this scenario, Harris would have to make up for a loss in Pennsylvania by carrying at least two Sun Belt states. That would mean Trump could lose either Georgia or North Carolina — both of which have 16 electoral votes — and still win.

    Contact Joey Garrison on X, formerly Twitter, @joeygarrison

    Umito
    View all posts

    You Might Also Like