Florida’s elections will test whether the state maintains its new reputation as a Republican stronghold, or whether Democrats make gains by exploiting support for ballot issues on abortion and marijuana and the new energy that Vice President Kamala Harris brings to the race.

Gone are the days when Florida was considered the biggest prize among swing states. After former President Barack Obama won Florida twice, former President Donald Trump won the state by a whisker in 2016 and then by a much larger share in 2020. In 2022, Republicans have won all five of the state’s seats in the poll by overwhelming margins.

Still, there’s plenty of buzz around constitutional amendments that could protect abortion rights and legalize recreational marijuana, with both sides of each issue pumping millions of dollars into advertising. Democrats support the ballot measures and hope they will increase turnout to give them at least a chance of preventing Trump’s third straight victory in Florida and preventing U.S. Sen. Rick Scott from winning a second term.

The only statewide office on the ballot is Scott’s Senate seat. Scott is being challenged by former Democratic U.S. Rep. Debbie Murcarsel-Powell in a race that has been overshadowed by the presidential election and ballot issues on abortion and marijuana.

Even if Trump and Scott win in Florida, Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said the election would be a huge success if the amendments pass and the party wins enough legislative seats to take the supermajority away from Republicans. .

“Look where we were in November 2022. We suffered the greatest loss Florida Democrats have ever had,” Fried said. “No one predicted that we would be having this conversation today, that the polls showed we were close, that there was even a possibility that Florida was in play. Everyone ruled us out.”

It’s still a difficult climb. The amendments need the support of at least 60% of voters, and enough money is being spent against them that it could create doubt among voters who normally support these issues, said Jamie Miller, a Republican political strategist based in Florida.

“Typically, amendments pass if there are no real efforts against them and they fail when there are real efforts against them,” Miller said.

Miller also believes Democrats are motivated to vote against Republicans they don’t like rather than taking inspiration from their own candidates.

“I see enthusiasm against Donald Trump and against Rick Scott, but generally speaking in the state, the size of Florida is not enough to cross the line,” he said.

Scott served two terms as governor, winning each with less than 50% of the vote. In 2018, he defeated incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson in a race decided by 0.2 percentage points. But Florida politics has changed. The last time Scott was on the ballot, Democrats outnumbered Republicans in the state. The Republicans now have a million-voter advantage.

Scott, one of the richest members of Congress, pumped millions of dollars of his own money into the race, as he did in his three previous elections. Well spent and with little money coming from national Democrats until the final weeks of the race, Murcarsel-Powell struggled to attract attention.

Although Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis was not on the ballot, he spent time campaigning against abortion rights and marijuana amendments. DeSantis even used state agencies to fight the amendment, with the Agency for Health Care Administration creating a website and running television ads providing information on abortion and the Department of Health tried to prevent television stations from broadcasting an advertisement in favor of the amendment.

The abortion amendment would protect a woman’s right to have an abortion up to the point where the fetus can survive outside the uterus. Florida now bans abortion six weeks after conception, despite many women not realizing they are pregnant.

Voters overwhelmingly approved medical marijuana in 2016. This year, they are being asked to legalize recreational marijuana. The marijuana industry spent tens of millions of dollars on the campaign, while DeSantis raised money against it and often criticized it at official events.

Very few, if any, of Florida’s 28 congressional seats are competitive, but the state will elect at least one new member of Congress. Former Senate President Mike Haridopolos is favored to replace incumbent Republican Bill Posey. He is challenged by Democrat Sandy Kennedy in a strong Republican district.

The Republicans will maintain firm control over Parliament. Democrats will consider this a major victory if they overturn enough seats to eliminate the Republican Party’s supermajority in the House and Senate.

One of the heavily targeted legislative seats is held by Republican Sen. Corey Simon, a former Florida State and NFL football star who is being challenged by nationally known civil rights attorney Daryl Parks, who is the former partner of civil rights attorney Ben Crump.