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Top swing state counties to watch in the 2024 Trump-Harris election race
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Top swing state counties to watch in the 2024 Trump-Harris election race

Once polls begin to close on Election Day, all eyes will turn to the nation’s swing states counting votes for the presidential race. And within those states, a handful of counties could hold the keys to the outcome.

Here’s a look at some of the top counties to watch in the seven presidential battleground states, ranked by the state’s poll closing time (in Eastern Standard Time).

Georgia (7 p.m.)

Chattooga: One of seven NBC News communities to watch on the show “County to County” Project 2022this northwest county is rural and has a significant share of evangelical voters. Even though then-President Donald Trump lost the state in 2020, his support grew.

Cherokee and Forsyth: The suburbs and exurbs around Marietta tell a different story, one of reliably Republican communities moving away from the party in recent years. Mitt Romney won more than 80 percent of the vote in Forsyth in 2012, but Trump won only two-thirds of the vote there eight years later.

Gwinnett and Cobb: There’s no doubt that much of the discussion on election night will focus on the Atlanta suburbs. Democrats increased their score in the last election and will likely need to maintain double-digit margins to win again.

North Carolina (7:30 p.m.)

Anson: In addition to increasing their margins in big cities, Democrats also need to mobilize voters in rural areas of the South, particularly black voters. In 2020, Joe Biden won this county by just 4 points over Trump, while Hillary Clinton won by 13 points in 2016. If Vice President Kamala Harris struggles to match Biden’s margins among black voters, it could cost him dearly.

Henderson: South of Asheville, this county is among those in the federal disaster area following the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene in late September. While Trump won this county easily in 2020, his vote share fell 3 points between 2016 and 2020 (from 62% to 59%), and he was unable to reach the 63% obtained by Romney in 2012. Trump could help defend this county. counter the Democratic push for an upset here by approaching the GOP’s ratings of 2016 or 2012. Nikki Haley outperformed her share of the state’s vote in the March Republican presidential primary.

Nash: East of Raleigh, Nash was elected by razor-thin margins in the last presidential election (Trump won in 2016 while Biden won in 2020). It is also the home of a competitive congressional race.

Wake up: Located in Raleigh, in the growing Research Triangle, Democrats have built their lead here and will need to continue to do so if they want to flip North Carolina.

Pennsylvania (8 p.m.)

Roe deer: One of Philadelphia’s premier suburban counties, it’s where, as Dave Wasserman, editor and elections analyst at The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter (and NBC News Decision Desk contributor), notes in a recent analysis is “Trump’s best opportunity to advance in the Philadelphia suburbs” due to a higher proportion of non-college-educated whites.

Erie: Located right in the middle between Buffalo and Cleveland, this blue-collar swing county (north of Pittsburgh, on Lake Erie) supported Trump in 2016 by 2 points before Biden won it by 1 point in 2020.

Lackawanna: This county in the Scranton region moved away from Democrats from 2012 to 2016 before falling back a bit in 2020 (Barack Obama +28, Clinton +3, Biden +8). The 2024 margin here could be telling as to whether Biden, a Scranton native, was the only one who could stem Democratic erosion.

Northampton: Northampton has been one of the best reporting counties in recent memory, choosing the winner of the presidential election for decades.

Arizona (9 p.m.)

Maricopa: The massive attention paid to Maricopa is no surprise, given that more than half of the state’s residents live there. Democrats have made progress in making the state more competitive by integrating moderate Republican and Hispanic voters into their coalition. While Trump won it by 3 points in 2016, Biden won Maricopa by 2 points four years later.

Michigan (9 p.m.)

Kent: Romney, home to Grand Rapids, won this once reliably Republican county with 53% of the vote in 2012. Trump narrowly won it in 2016 with 48%, but Biden flipped it four years later with 42%. If Trump can make Kent look like 2016 or 2012 again, he might have a good night in the state.

Wayne: An obvious point for both campaigns, as the county is home to Detroit and will be a testing ground for how Harris can perform with black and Arab American voters. Neither Clinton nor Biden was able to match the 73% mark set by Obama in 2012.

Great Crossing: Home to Traverse City, this wealthy region of northwest Michigan tends to lean Democratic. Trump would like to reverse this trend as soon as this go-around.

Wisconsin (9 p.m.)

Danish: Home to Madison and the University of Wisconsin, this county is synonymous with Democratic intensity in highly educated college towns. Biden received 181,327 votes against Trump here in 2020, compared to Clinton’s 146,422 in 2016. And that Democratic victory helped the party flip Wisconsin in 2020, given that Biden won the state by just 20,000 votes.

Ozaukee: North of Milwaukee, it’s the “O” in “WOW” counties, the nickname for the state’s three suburban counties that served as the ancestral home of Republicans. Biden’s 43% there in 2020 was the best showing by a Democrat there since 1964, as Ozaukee and Waukesha have moved away from the GOP a bit in recent years.

Washington: The only county of the three “WOW” counties in which Trump increased his vote share between 2016 and 2020, Washington is bucking the trend that has affected its neighboring counties. Trump needs to stand his ground here and make sure any slippage in the suburbs elsewhere doesn’t spread to Washington.