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    • What to watch for in Florida, Arizona and more
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    What to watch for in Florida, Arizona and more

    Umito Posted on

    Top line

    Voters in 10 states will decide Tuesday whether their state should legally protect abortion rights, the latest in a series of abortion-related ballot measures since the overturning of Roe v. Wade – all of whom came out in favor of abortion. rights, although it remains to be seen whether these ballot measures will continue this trend. (This page will be updated as results become available.)

    Key facts

    Arizona: Proposition 139 would create a “fundamental right to abortion” in the state Constitution, which prohibits the state from prohibiting abortion before a fetus is viable and would overturn the state’s 15-week ban . (Polls close at 9 p.m. EST, simple majority required to pass.)

    Florida: Amendment 4 would amend the state Constitution to clarify that no law “shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion prior to viability or when necessary to protect the health of the patient,” overturning the current ban on abortion. six-week abortion in the state. (Polls close at 7 p.m. EST, 60% majority necessary pass.)

    Colorado: THE Right to abortion This proposal would add the right to abortion to the state Constitution, also clarifying that the state cannot deny health insurance coverage for abortion – although the state currently has few restrictions to abortion. (Polls close at 9 p.m. EST, 55% majority necessary pass.)

    Maryland: The right to reproductive freedom amendment would amend the state Constitution to say that people “have the right to reproductive freedom,” including over “decisions to prevent, continue, or terminate their own pregnancy,” although abortion is already legal in the state. (Polls close at 8 p.m. EST; simple majority is needed to pass.)

    Missouri: The right to reproductive freedom amendment would specify in the state Constitution that the state cannot interfere with a person’s “fundamental right to reproductive freedom” or prosecute anyone for having an abortion or assisting in having an abortion, overriding the near-total ban on abortion. abortion by the state. (Polls close at 8 p.m. EST; simple majority is needed to pass.)

    Montana: Constitutional Initiative No. 128 would be permitting abortion until the fetus is viable, and then, if medically necessary, amending the state Constitution to “expressly grant the right to make and carry out decisions regarding one’s own pregnancy, including the right to abortion”, thus guaranteeing that access to abortion cannot be accepted. in the State after the courts have previously confirmed he. (Polls close at 10 p.m. EST, simple majority required to pass.)

    Nebraska (pro-abortion access): The state has two competing measures on the ballot, the of which the first would legalize abortion until the fetus is viable or when medically necessary, overturning the state’s 12-week ban. (Polls close at 9 p.m. EST, simple majority of at least 35% of the total votes cast in the election were required to succeed.)

    Nebraska (anti-abortion access): The second measure would be enshrine the current 12-week ban in the state Constitution, prohibiting abortion after the first trimester except in cases of rape, incest or medical emergency. (Polls close at 9 p.m. EST, simple majority of at least 35% of the total votes cast in the election were required to succeed.)

    Nevada: The Abortion Rights Initiative guarantee the “fundamental right to abortion performed or administered by a qualified health professional until fetal viability, or when necessary to protect the life or health of the pregnant patient”, although abortion is already permitted in the state. (Polls close at 10 p.m. EST, a simple majority is required to pass, but then it will also be necessary pass a second time in 2026.)

    New York: Equal protection of the law amendment would more broadly amend the New York Constitution’s anti-discrimination language, including adding protections against discrimination based on “pregnancy, pregnancy outcome, reproductive health care, and autonomy,” ensuring that Abortion will remain legal in the state. (Polls close at 9 p.m. EST, simple majority required to pass.)

    South Dakota: Amendment G would overturn the state’s current ban and impose increasing restrictions on abortion during pregnancy, allowing abortion without any restrictions during the first trimester of pregnancy, abortion during the second trimester only for a reason “reasonably related to the physical health” of the woman. pregnant woman and abortion during the third trimester only when necessary for the life or health of the pregnant person. (Polls close at 9 p.m. EST, simple majority required to pass.)

    To watch

    Ballot measure results will begin to be released Tuesday evening, but it remains to be seen how long it will take for the races to be called, as it will depend on how close they are.

    What we don’t know

    Whether and how abortion ballot measures could help or harm Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in states where they have been introduced. Democrats have traditionally viewed abortion ballot measures as helping to strengthen their candidates, believe more Democratic voters will be persuaded to vote because they want to support the ballot measure, and will then vote for Harris as well. Trump campaign political director James Blair told the Washington Post the Trump campaign believes However, the ballot measures might actually help them, as polls suggest the abortion ballot measures are more popular than Harris’s, suggesting voters will split their vote to support both abortion which remains legal and Trump. Indeed, voters might believe that their vote preserving access to abortion in the state means they do not have to consider it a key issue in the presidential race and will therefore support Trump even if it is more likely that he acts against the right to abortion. Either line of thinking could have major implications for the presidential election, given that abortion is on the ballot in the key swing states of Arizona and Nevada.

    Large number

    56%. This is the share of American voters during an October YouGov survey who have largely stated that they would support a hypothetical ballot measure in their state enshrining the right to abortion before the fetus is viable in their state’s constitution, in accordance with their state’s constitution. polls showing that a majority of Americans support abortion remaining legal and oppose its ban. That being said, a 53% majority also said they would support banning abortion after the third trimester except in cases of rape, incest and medical emergencies, with Republicans decrying abortions more late in pregnancy.

    Chief Critics

    This year’s abortion ballot measures faced heavy backlash resistance from Republicans and abortion advocates in the states where they were introduced. Measures in states like Missouri, Montana and new York were allowed to remain on the ballot by judges after legal challenges were filed against them, for example, and even though the measure will appear on the ballot, litigation is still in progress about the South Dakota referendum. Florida’s abortion ballot measure has come under the most attack, as Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration has opposed the measure through measures such as a state health agency. create a website to advocate against this, DeSantis launch a survey of signatures supporting the measure and the governor suggesting the state was going to initiate criminal proceedings against television channels broadcasting advertisements in favor of this measure. As a result, a judge issued a restraining order preventing DeSantis’ administration from taking action against the television ads, decision the state “trampled” the right to freedom of expression.

    Key context

    Abortion ballot measures have become a key tool for abortion rights advocates to preserve access to the procedure following the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade in June 2022. These measures have become a way for abortion rights supporters to mobilize public opinion in favor. This involves legalizing the procedure, overriding anti-abortion lawmakers in states that have banned or are likely to ban it, and ensuring that even if abortion is legal in a particular state, lawmakers will not be able to prohibit it in the future. Kansas was the first state to implement abortion on the ballot in August 2022, followed by California, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana and Vermont in the 2022 midterm elections and Ohio voting on abortion rights in 2023. All races broke in favor of abortion rights, as part of a broader trend of victories by pro-abortion rights candidates. at the polls in races where abortion is a central issue.

    Further reading

    ForbesWhat Americans Really Think About Abortion: Sometimes Surprising Poll Results As DNC Gets UnderwayBy Alison Durkee
    ForbesHere’s where abortion is on the ballot in November — as Nebraska’s measures are upheld in courtBy Alison Durkee

    Umito
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