THUNDER BAY, ON – As Americans head to the polls today, the outcome of the presidential race between Republican candidate Donald J. Trump and Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris could have profound implications for the economy , trade, immigration policies and Canada’s environmental objectives.

With the latest polls revealing an extremely close race, Canadians are watching the election closely to understand how each potential presidency could affect our country, particularly here in northwestern Ontario.

One issue not at the top of the list is softwood lumber, which has major impacts on the Canadian forestry sector.

Trade relations: potential changes in the USMCA

Trump presidency: During his previous administration, Trump renegotiated NAFTA, resulting in the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). If he returns to power, Trump could push for further revisions to the trade deal, which could make it harder for Canadian businesses. His “America First” policies could lead to increased tariffs on Canadian goods, particularly in key sectors like steel, aluminum and lumber, which are essential exports for Canada. For Northwestern Ontario, this could impact industries in Thunder Bay and surrounding areas that rely on cross-border trade.

Harris presidency: Kamala Harris should take a more collaborative approach to Canada on trade. She has shown support for fair trade policies that benefit both countries. A Harris administration could seek to build on the USMCA in ways that strengthen the North American supply chain, benefiting Canadian exporters. It will also likely avoid rate increases, which would ensure the stability of businesses in Ontario and across Canada.

Climate change and environmental policies: cooperation or conflict?

Trump presidency: Trump’s previous stance on climate change included withdrawing the United States from the Paris Agreement and abandoning environmental protections. A second Trump term could result in less coordination with Canada on climate initiatives. For Canadians, particularly those in Northern Ontario where environmental concerns are paramount, this could hamper cross-border efforts to protect the Great Lakes and reduce emissions. Canada could find itself under pressure to compete with less stringent environmental regulations, which would impact its climate goals.

Harris presidency: As vice president, Harris emphasized the need for strong climate action. A Harris presidency would likely foster closer collaboration with Canada on climate goals, including reducing emissions and protecting shared ecosystems like the Great Lakes. His administration could align with Canada on the transition to renewable energy, which could open up cross-border partnerships and investments, creating opportunities in green technology sectors that could benefit Ontario’s economy.

Energy policy and cross-border pipelines

Trump presidency: Trump has previously supported major pipeline projects, such as Keystone XL, which was ultimately canceled by President Joe Biden. A second Trump term could renew U.S. support for Canadian oil projects, potentially revitalizing pipeline projects. While this could benefit Canada’s energy sector, it would also face opposition from environmental groups in both countries. In Northwestern Ontario, where many communities value environmental sustainability, the return of such projects could spark local debates about balancing economic growth and environmental protection.

Harris presidency: Harris is likely to prioritize clean energy and could impose stricter regulations on fossil fuel infrastructure, limiting prospects for cross-border pipelines. While this could complicate Canada’s oil export plans, it would be consistent with Canada’s own climate goals. For Ontario, this could mean an increased focus on renewable energy and green infrastructure, potentially attracting U.S.-backed investments in clean energy projects that would benefit the region.

Immigration policies: potential impacts on migration and labor markets in Canada

Trump presidency: Trump’s previous hard line on immigration led to restrictions that affected foreign workers, students and refugees. A return to this approach could increase migration pressures on Canada, with more people seeking work or asylum here. Thunder Bay and other communities that rely on skilled immigrants could see an influx of talent, which could boost local economies but also strain resources and housing availability.

Harris presidency: Harris has supported more inclusive immigration policies, which could make the United States a more attractive destination for international migrants. This could ease some pressure on Canada’s immigration system, but could also intensify competition for talent between the two countries. For Northwestern Ontario, where a shortage of skilled labor is a challenge, a more balanced U.S. approach to immigration could help stabilize the regional workforce.

Indigenous relations and cross-border collaboration

Both Canada and the United States face complex issues regarding indigenous rights, land and resource management. A Trump administration could focus less on Indigenous collaboration, which could strain cross-border Indigenous relations, particularly around environmental protection.

However, a Harris administration would likely promote Indigenous rights and protections, strengthening cooperative efforts on shared lands and waterways across the border, including in areas important to northern Indigenous communities. of Ontario.

Economic policy and the Canadian dollar

Trump presidency: Trump’s economic policies could cause fluctuations in the Canadian dollar, particularly if he implements protectionist measures or further tax cuts that spur inflation. A weakened Canadian dollar would make exports more competitive, but could increase costs for Canadians importing U.S. products, impacting Ontario consumers and businesses.

Harris presidency: Harris should adopt policies that prioritize stability and aim to control inflation, which could keep the Canadian dollar more stable. A stable U.S. economy under Harris would likely benefit Canada, particularly in sectors strongly tied to the U.S. market, such as manufacturing and agriculture.

What are the issues for Canada and Northwestern Ontario?

With such a close race, the potential outcomes could either strengthen or complicate Canada’s relationship with its largest trading partner. For Northwestern Ontario, impacts will be felt in areas ranging from trade and the environment to labor markets and Indigenous rights.

A Harris administration would likely mean closer cooperation with Canada, aligning on issues such as climate and fair trade. On the other hand, a Trump administration could bring economic opportunities to some sectors, but would pose challenges in terms of environmental policy and trade tensions.

As Canadians watch the results unfold, it is clear that this U.S. election will shape not only America’s future, but Canada’s as well.