A notable in-state Big 12 rivalry kicks off under the lights as No. 9 conference title contender BYU hits the road against Utah in the holy war. Let’s check the latest predictions for the match from an analytical model that simulates games.

A month ago, Utah was undefeated. Since then, it has lost four straight games and sits just 1-4 in a Big 12 title picture that it projected in the preseason to dominate.

BYU is one of five remaining undefeated teams in college football, going 8-0 and taking sole possession of first place in the Big 12 after last weekend’s loss to Iowa State.

In anticipation of this week’s game, let’s take a look at the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and selects winners based on a projected per-game scoring margin.

So far, the models give the Cougars the edge over the Utes in this rivalry game.

BYU emerged as a road favorite, coming out on top in the majority 59.5 percent Updated computer simulations for matchup.

This leaves Utah as the presumptive winner in the remaining games. 40.5 percent sims.

In total, the Cougars came in first in 11,900 of the matchup index calculations, while the Utes came in ahead of BYU in the other 8,100 predictions.

How does this translate into a projected margin of victory between these teams?

BYU should be 3.5 points better than Utah, a margin of 4 points if we round up, on the same field in the current composition of the two teams, according to the latest forecasts of the model.

If so, that would be enough to cover the spread.

This is because BYU is a 3.5 point favorites against Utah, according to updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 40.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And that set the money odds for BYU at -182 and for Utah at +150 to win outright.

Most bettors expect the Cougars to remain undefeated against the Utes and cover the narrow margin, according to the latest consensus spread picks for the matchup.

BYU gets 70 percent bets to win the game and cover the point spread.

The other 30 percent betting, the Utah project will win outright in the event of an upset, or keep the game at a basket or less in the event of a defeat.

BYU is first among Big 12 teams with a 58.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI metrics.

The index gives the Cougars a total win prediction of 11 games this season.

Utah comes into this weekend with a 41.7 percent chance to become bowl eligible this season, according to the computers.

The model gives the Utes a total win projection of 5.4 games in 24.

College football Football Power Index (FPI) rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and matches, using a combination of key analytics including scores to date, quality of opponents, talent of team, recruitment and schedule of a team.

Teams are not ranked in order of talent like in other rankings, but by projected points margin per game against an average team on a neutral court.

First place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (62)
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Miami
5. Texas
6. State of Pennsylvania
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. BYU
10. Notre Dame
11. Alabama
12. Boise State
13. EMS
14. LSU
15. Texas A&M
16. Ole Mademoiselle
17. Iowa State
18. Army
19. Clemson
20. Washington State
21. Colorado
22. Kansas State
23. Pittsburgh
24. Vanderbilt
25. Louisville

When: Saturday November 9
Time: 8:15 p.m. Mountain
Television: ESPN network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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