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    • Hurricane forecasts indicate more storms could be brewing after Rafael
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    Hurricane forecasts indicate more storms could be brewing after Rafael

    Umito Posted on

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    As the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season enters its final month, the future hurricane Rafael will this be the swan song of the season, or are there more storms to come? And, overall, what does the rest of the hurricane season look like?

    Although it’s late in the season, things look “prone for another storm or two.” Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach told USA TODAY. “In addition to the area the National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring that could form north of the Leeward Islands, there may be additional potential in the Caribbean.”

    The season has already been unusually active, with 17 named storms forming, which is above the average of 14. Of those 17 storms, 10 were hurricanes, including the catastrophic Hurricanes Helen and Milton. Hurricane season officially ends on November 30, although storms occasionally form in December.

    Global climate models could favor storm formation

    “There are no compelling signals at this point, but the large scale seems quite conducive” to more tropical cyclone activity beyond Rafael, Klotzbach said.

    He said global climate models such as Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) currently favors storm formation. The MJO is an eastward-moving disturbance of clouds, precipitation, wind and pressure that crosses the planet in the tropics and returns to its original starting point in 30 to 60 days, according to NOAA. This influences weather patterns, including the formation of hurricanes, around the world.

    Additionally, damaging wind shear from hurricanes is expected to be well below normal by the middle to end of the month. “The shear across most of the western Caribbean is expected to be between 10 and 20 knots, which could certainly support another storm,” Klotzbach said.

    “Something could happen next week”

    Another expert, AccuWeather Meteorologist Paul Pastelok told USA TODAY on Tuesday that “it still looks active in the Caribbean” over the next week, mainly due to the lack of wind shear. “Something could happen there next week,” he said, adding that all forms could take a similar path to Rafael’s.

    Federal scientists from Climate Prediction Center ” agreed, noting that the Caribbean next week “will provide a favorable environment for the development of late-season tropical cyclones.” Forecasts show potential storms forming over the western or central Caribbean as well as the western Atlantic near the Turks and Caicos Islands.

    November storms are rare but not uncommon

    “Of the more than 1,700 tropical storms and hurricanes that have formed in the Atlantic basin since 1842, 125 occurred in November,” the statement said. Rachel Duensing, WNCN-TV meteorologist. “125 storms is still a lot, but in the grand scheme of the hurricane season, that’s only 7% of all named storms.”

    When it comes to storms that hit the United States, only four hurricanes made landfall on the continental United States in the penultimate month of the calendar, but the most recent – ​​Nicole – hit Florida there barely two years ago.

    Here are the four hurricanes that made landfall in the United States in November, according to Weather.com meteorologist Jonathan Erdman:

    • Nicole in Florida (Cat. 1) on November 10, 2022
    • Kate in the Florida Panhandle (Cat. 2) on November 21, 1985 (last record of the US hurricane season)
    • A cat from South Florida. 2 on November 4, 1935
    • The “Shipping Hurricane” in eastern North Carolina (Cat. 1) on November 2, 1861.

    Umito
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