NEW ORLEANS (WVUE) – Rafael in the Caribbean continues to go from strength to strength. We expect the storm to pass through Cuba and head toward the Gulf as a hurricane late Wednesday and Thursday morning.

As it continues to push north, water temperatures cool and wind shear will likely affect circulation, helping to weaken the system. The models diverge a bit over the central Gulf, as a weaker surface circulation will behave differently than a stronger storm with higher cloud tops. A weaker storm could stay further south while a stronger storm would be more influenced by upper-level winds. We will monitor progress throughout the week. For the moment, I do not see any major impact for our region.

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